Matchup analysis
Our model projects New Mexico State 26, Middle Tennessee 24 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: New Mexico State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 50.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
New Mexico State is 3-5 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.5 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.8 per game). Middle Tennessee is 4-4 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.7 per game).
New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (131st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up. Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (124th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense) meets New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Middle Tennessee puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 25 and Middle Tennessee by 20 about 80% of the time.
Middle Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. New Mexico State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee: stat comparison
| Stat | New Mexico State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.5#111 | 23.9#100 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#82 | 29.6#108 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#71 | 6.00#67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42#56 | 6.59#127 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.7#79 | 140.6#109 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.1#73 | 206.9#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.9#38 | 204.1#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.3#93 | 208.3#74 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#131 | 0.29#10 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#74 | 1.00#55 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#43 | 1.14#124 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#55 | 1.00#17 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#92 | +0.05#88 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#62 | +0.08#93 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#89 | 41.5%#91 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.1%#40 | 44.3%#107 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6%#69 | 12.5%#72 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#71 | 13.0%#95 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#62 | 10.8%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#102 | 13.2%#67 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61#106 | 3.79#94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#89 | 4.31#109 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#105 | own 28#109 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#134 | own 28#47 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#86 | 57.9#133 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#67 | +0.01#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#109 | +0.08#74 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#58 | +0.12#117 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#63 | +0.03#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#80 | 41.6%#95 |
| Passing success rate | 36.8%#116 | 40.7%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8%#30 | 19.3%#104 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#48 | 31.3%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#58 | 30.7%#80 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.9%#90 | 27.8%#137 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#84 | 40.0%#86 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#107 | 60.2%#79 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#72 | 63.9%#92 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Middle Tennessee schedule · all Week 13 projections
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