Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kennesaw State 24.7, Middle Tennessee 24 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Kennesaw State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 48.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kennesaw State is 1-6, scoring 20 and allowing 25 points per game (-5 per game). Middle Tennessee is 4-3, scoring 23.3 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-4.3 per game).
Kennesaw State's below-average offense (118th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (131st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kennesaw State puts up. Kennesaw State's below-average defense (103rd) should limit Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (124th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 23 and Middle Tennessee by 22 about 80% of the time.
Middle Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kennesaw State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.3 points and the total by 23.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kennesaw State / Middle Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 49.5 | -111 / -108 |
| Opening line | Middle Tennessee -3.5 | 50.5 | +128 / -154 |
| DraftKings | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 49.5 | -112 / -108 |
| FanDuel | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 49.5 | -111 / -108 |
| BetRivers | Kennesaw State -2 | 47.5 | -125 / +102 |
| BetMGM | Kennesaw State -1 | 49.5 | -110 / -108 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Middle Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kennesaw State -0.5 | 48.7 | 48% |
| Market consensus | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 49.5 | 51% |
| Blended projection | Kennesaw State -1.5 | 50.3 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Middle Tennessee win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 51% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Kennesaw State -0.7 · market Kennesaw State -1.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Middle Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 49.5 · difference -0.8
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Middle Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kennesaw State 24.7, Middle Tennessee 24.0 | Kennesaw State 52%right winner | 15.3 | 23.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7#75 | 22.4#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5#73 | 30.9#115 |
| Yards per play | 6.21#38 | 5.71#80 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97#90 | 6.31#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.1#64 | 124.2#122 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.1#45 | 267.7#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.3#123 | 157.3#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.9#54 | 256.3#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07#74 | 0.75#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.79#106 | 1.17#55 |
| Sacks per game | 2.21#54 | 1.67#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.71#64 | 2.67#117 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#53 | +0.01#84 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#104 | +0.07#107 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#60 | 42.7%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#86 | 44.4%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#35 | 11.1%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7%#80 | 13.3%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#52 | 13.9%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#83 | 13.3%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#100 | 3.60#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#53 | 4.29#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#66 | own 29#101 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#27 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4#45 | 68.7#43 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#75 | -0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#47 | +0.03#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#106 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#97 | +0.22#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7%#77 | 44.8%#54 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#73 | 42.0%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#68 | 20.9%#109 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#34 | 30.9%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#22 | 31.9%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1%#69 | 38.1%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.5%#55 | 40.3%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.1%#80 | 57.8%#92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.5%#56 | 66.0%#108 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kennesaw State schedule · Middle Tennessee schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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