Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Old Dominion 27, Virginia Tech 23.4 at Lane Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Old Dominion wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Old Dominion is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 10 points per game (+21 per game). Virginia Tech is 1-0, scoring 73 and allowing 3 points per game (+70 per game).
Virginia Tech's strong defense (38th) should limit Old Dominion's middle-of-the-pack offense (76th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Virginia Tech's strong offense (31st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.9 points against an average defense) against Old Dominion's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 26 and Virginia Tech by 19 about 80% of the time.
Virginia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Old Dominion is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44. Virginia Tech won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Old Dominion / Virginia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia Tech -16.25 → Virginia Tech -17.75 | 51 → 47.5 | +675 / -1100 |
| Bovada | Virginia Tech -18.5 → Virginia Tech -18 | 51 → 47.5 | +700 / -1200 |
| DraftKings | Virginia Tech -14 → Virginia Tech -17.5 | 47.5 | +650 / -1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Old Dominion -3.5 | 50.4 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Virginia Tech -18 | 47.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Virginia Tech -14.5 | 48.7 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia Tech win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -47 pts
- Margin
- model Old Dominion -3.6 · market Virginia Tech -17.75 · difference -21.3 pts (Virginia Tech view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 47.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 21.3 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Old Dominion 27.0, Virginia Tech 23.4 | Old Dominion 59%wrong winner | 26.6 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Old Dominion 18.9, Virginia Tech 34.0 | Virginia Tech 82%right winner | 7.9 | 12.2 |
Final: Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Old Dominion | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#29 | 21.4#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.5#14 | 30.2#107 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#13 | 5.62#91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94#11 | 6.17#105 |
| Rushing yards per game | 250.2#5 | 198.2#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.5#79 | 154.4#124 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.7#67 | 167.3#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.6#20 | 219.9#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.15#90 | 1.00#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.46#21 | 0.50#133 |
| Sacks per game | 2.92#7 | 1.42#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.54#44 | 2.25#103 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#49 | +0.02#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#8 | +0.12#127 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#27 | 41.1%#91 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#25 | 46.0%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#7 | 11.7%#89 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#8 | 13.5%#111 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#21 | 10.4%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#48 | 11.5%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#83 | 4.09#51 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.87#4 | 4.66#131 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#40 | own 28#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#79 | own 31#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#51 | 62.8#110 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#74 | +0.17#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#41 | -0.16#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#26 | +0.01#76 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20#7 | +0.24#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#32 | 47.8%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#40 | 32.6%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#12 | 14.3%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.7%#22 | 26.1%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.8%#13 | 34.8%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.6%#41 | 40.7%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#31 | 47.9%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#107 | 64.7%#47 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.9%#16 | 65.4%#106 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Old Dominion schedule · Virginia Tech schedule · all Week 2 projections
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