Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 28.6, Louisiana Tech 19.5 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 2. That is a solid edge: LSU wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 48 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Louisiana Tech is 1-0, scoring 80 and allowing 6 points per game (+74 per game). LSU (No. 8) is 1-0, scoring 51 and allowing 10 points per game (+41 per game).
Expect Louisiana Tech to find it hard going: LSU's strong defense (14th) outranks Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense). LSU's strong offense (19th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd); that mismatch is where most of LSU's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 13 and LSU by 32 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour LSU by about 7. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.9 points and the total by 11.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana Tech / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -32.5 → LSU -34.75 | 55.5 → 54.75 | +3500 / -20000 |
| DraftKings | LSU -31.5 → LSU -34.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | +3500 / -20000 |
| Bovada | LSU -33.5 → LSU -35 | 55.5 → 55 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -9 | 48.0 | 72% |
| Market consensus | LSU -35 | 54.8 | 97% |
| Blended projection | LSU -30.5 | 54.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 97% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -9.1 · market LSU -34.75 · difference -25.6 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 48.0 · market 54.75 · difference -6.7
Model margin is 25.6 pts more toward Louisiana Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana Tech 19.5, LSU 28.6 | LSU 72%right winner | 21.9 | 11.0 |
| New formula | Louisiana Tech 16.6, LSU 38.5 | LSU 91%right winner | 9.0 | 3.9 |
Final: Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana Tech vs LSU: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.3#71 | 22.8#103 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.8#35 | 19.8#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.66#85 | 5.44#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.87#74 | 5.41#39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.8#23 | 121.1#124 |
| Net passing yards per game | 163.7#118 | 219.8#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 145.5#40 | 139.4#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 258.2#125 | 211.5#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.15#89 | 0.85#39 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.77#6 | 1.54#16 |
| Sacks per game | 1.38#113 | 1.92#76 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85#81 | 2.23#100 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#110 | -0.03#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#53 | -0.11#11 |
| Success rate | 40.4%#99 | 38.8%#114 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#33 | 38.9%#35 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#56 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#98 | 12.9%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#51 | 14.5%#19 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#68 | 14.2%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#102 | 3.59#111 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#22 | 3.43#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 30#51 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#17 | own 28#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3#81 | 62.7#111 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#45 | -0.08#121 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16#127 | +0.01#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#41 | -0.11#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#70 | -0.12#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1%#91 | 37.2%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 36.4%#113 | 40.0%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.8%#60 | 23.9%#135 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#96 | 31.0%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#85 | 28.9%#63 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.8%#58 | 38.0%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4%#49 | 37.3%#40 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.8%#65 | 52.4%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5%#9 | 62.9%#88 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Tech schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 2 projections
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