Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kennesaw State 32.3, Georgia State 22.9 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Kennesaw State wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 55.2 combined points.
Georgia State is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 10 points per game (+49 per game). Kennesaw State is 1-0, scoring 47 and allowing 0 points per game (+47 per game).
Kennesaw State's below-average defense (91st) should limit Georgia State's below-average offense (106th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Kennesaw State's below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense) against Georgia State's struggling defense (127th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 13 and Kennesaw State by 32 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kennesaw State by about 7.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17. Georgia State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia State / Kennesaw State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kennesaw State -9.25 → Kennesaw State -7.5 | 50.75 → 55.5 | +260 / -329 |
| DraftKings | Kennesaw State -9.5 → Kennesaw State -7.5 | 50.5 → 55.5 | +240 / -298 |
| Bovada | Kennesaw State -9 → Kennesaw State -7.5 | 51 → 55.5 | +280 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kennesaw State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kennesaw State -9.5 | 55.2 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Kennesaw State -7.5 | 55.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Kennesaw State -8 | 55.9 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kennesaw State win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Kennesaw State -9.4 · market Kennesaw State -7.5 · difference +1.9 pts (Kennesaw State view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 55.5 · difference -0.3
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Kennesaw State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia State 22.9, Kennesaw State 32.3 | Kennesaw State 73%wrong winner | 23.4 | 7.2 |
| New formula | Georgia State 22.6, Kennesaw State 34.2 | Kennesaw State 76%wrong winner | 25.5 | 8.8 |
Final: Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia State vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Georgia State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8#119 | 26.7#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.8#134 | 25.5#73 |
| Yards per play | 5.71#81 | 6.21#38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.61#129 | 5.97#90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.3#110 | 174.1#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.3#28 | 250.1#45 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.2#130 | 201.3#123 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.5#111 | 210.9#54 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#84 | 1.07#74 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.42#135 | 0.79#106 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#119 | 2.21#54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#41 | 1.71#64 |
| Stat | Georgia State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#64 | +0.05#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#126 | +0.07#104 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#92 | 42.7%#60 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2%#119 | 42.7%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#103 | 13.6%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#127 | 12.7%#80 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#122 | 13.3%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#31 | 12.4%#83 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.58#112 | 3.68#100 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#125 | 3.73#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#131 | own 30#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#110 | own 28#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#25 | 68.4#45 |
| Stat | Georgia State | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#82 | +0.02#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#61 | +0.09#47 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#119 | +0.06#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#119 | +0.08#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#84 | 42.7%#77 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#89 | 40.8%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#84 | 18.2%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#42 | 33.6%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.2%#134 | 25.9%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#68 | 41.1%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2%#127 | 39.5%#55 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.2%#69 | 59.1%#80 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.5%#117 | 58.5%#56 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia State schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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