Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 51.6, Howard 0 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Indiana wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 51.6 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Howard is 1-1, scoring 26 and allowing 26 points per game (+0 per game). Indiana (No. 5) is 1-0, scoring 52 and allowing 16 points per game (+36 per game).
Howard plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Indiana's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 29 and Indiana by 74 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 49.5. The game is on BTN.
Result: Howard 0, Indiana 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 3.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Howard / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -57 → Indiana -57.5 | 65.25 → 67.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Indiana -57.5 | 66 → 67.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Indiana -56.5 → Indiana -57.5 | 64.5 → 67.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -51.5 | 51.6 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -57.5 | 67.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -57 | 66.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Indiana -51.6 · market Indiana -57.5 · difference -5.9 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 67.5 · difference -15.9
Model margin is 5.9 pts more toward Howard than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Howard 0.0, Indiana 51.6 | Indiana 100%right winner | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| New formula | Howard -3.7, Indiana 56.0 | Indiana 100%right winner | 4.8 | 2.7 |
Final: Howard 0, Indiana 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Howard vs Indiana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Howard | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8 | 41.6#3 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 11.7#2 |
| Yards per play | 4.77 | 7.02#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.82 | 4.97#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.7 | 227.3#12 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.5 | 238.5#54 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.4 | 95.1#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.7 | 179.9#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.50#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 1.31#34 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 2.69#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.09 | 1.56#45 |
| Stat | Howard | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.15#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07 | -0.10#16 |
| Success rate | 36.2% | 51.2%#4 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 35.4%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 13.8%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 10.6%#32 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 16.9%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 10.8%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90 | 5.24#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 2.46#1 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 32#21 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 26#2 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 66.4#64 |
| Stat | Howard | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.06#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.25 | +0.28#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.12#12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.08#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1% | 47.5%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 55.9%#2 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9% | 13.6%#9 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 39.7%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 27.4%#31 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1% | 58.1%#1 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 32.8%#10 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2% | 73.7%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9% | 40.0%#3 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 2 projections
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