Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 27.1, Washington State 22 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Kansas State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Washington State is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 24 points per game (-14 per game). Kansas State is 1-0, scoring 71 and allowing 3 points per game (+68 per game).
Expect Washington State to find it hard going: Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (88th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense). Kansas State's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Washington State's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th); that mismatch is where most of Kansas State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 17 and Kansas State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas State by about 3. The game is on TNT.
Result: Washington State 7, Kansas State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.9 points and the total by 8.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington State / Kansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -17.5 → Kansas State -17.75 | 50.25 → 48.25 | +662.5 / -1075 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -16.5 → Kansas State -17.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | +675 / -1050 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -18.5 → Kansas State -18 | 49 → 48 | +650 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -5 | 49.1 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -18 | 48.3 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -16 | 49.2 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas State win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -24 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -5.1 · market Kansas State -17.75 · difference -12.6 pts (Kansas State view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 48.25 · difference +0.9
Model margin is 12.6 pts more toward Washington State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Washington State 22.0, Kansas State 27.1 | Kansas State 63%right winner | 21.9 | 8.1 |
| New formula | Washington State 18.6, Kansas State 38.8 | Kansas State 89%right winner | 6.8 | 16.4 |
Final: Washington State 7, Kansas State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Washington State vs Kansas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Washington State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5#105 | 29.4#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.2#26 | 26.7#79 |
| Yards per play | 5.59#93 | 6.14#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22#27 | 5.52#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.8#107 | 180.8#52 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.2#72 | 202.6#95 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.1#38 | 182.8#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.3#6 | 215.1#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.69#132 | 0.92#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#81 | 1.58#13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#41 | 2.42#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#59 | 1.08#12 |
| Stat | Washington State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#116 | +0.05#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#36 | +0.01#68 |
| Success rate | 42.1%#74 | 40.6%#97 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#53 | 39.4%#41 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#68 | 13.2%#46 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#48 | 12.6%#77 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#60 | 12.7%#62 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#80 | 13.6%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06#55 | 4.29#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#29 | 3.79#61 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 30#50 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 30#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3#80 | 62.4#117 |
| Stat | Washington State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#129 | +0.08#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#86 | +0.03#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#63 | +0.04#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#28 | -0.04#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#65 | 40.5%#99 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#70 | 40.6%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7%#106 | 22.7%#128 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3%#105 | 30.2%#74 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.1%#6 | 28.4%#51 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.3%#79 | 38.2%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#21 | 40.3%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.5%#76 | 68.6%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#92 | 61.4%#77 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington State schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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