Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina 42.4, Towson 4 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: South Carolina wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.4 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Towson is 0-2, scoring 16.5 and allowing 31.5 points per game (-15 per game). South Carolina is 1-0, scoring 57 and allowing 0 points per game (+57 per game).
Towson plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why South Carolina's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina by 16 and South Carolina by 61 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina by about 36.3. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Towson 9, South Carolina 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 7.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Towson / South Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina -43.5 → South Carolina -44.5 | 55.25 → 57.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | South Carolina -43.5 → South Carolina -44.5 | 56 → 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | South Carolina -43.5 → South Carolina -44.5 | 54.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina -38.5 | 46.4 | 99% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina -44.5 | 57.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina -44 | 57.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model South Carolina -38.4 · market South Carolina -44.5 · difference -6.1 pts (South Carolina view)
- Total
- model 46.4 · market 57.5 · difference -11.1
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Towson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Towson 4.0, South Carolina 42.4 | South Carolina 99%right winner | 2.4 | 7.6 |
| New formula | Towson -0.7, South Carolina 52.0 | South Carolina 100%right winner | 16.7 | 2.7 |
Final: Towson 9, South Carolina 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Towson vs South Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Towson | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8 | 22.7#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 | 22.1#44 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 5.67#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 5.63#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.7 | 143.5#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.5 | 208.9#91 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.2 | 149.4#45 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.1 | 223.3#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.25#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.17#54 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 3.42#131 |
| Stat | Towson | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.09#123 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.02#51 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 37.0%#123 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 41.8%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 13.0%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 12.6%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7% | 15.6%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.94 | 2.96#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 3.52#33 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 27#129 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | own 30#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9 | 62.2#118 |
| Stat | Towson | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.09#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.09#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.04#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3% | 38.9%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 35.2%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 17.3%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 23.7%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5% | 29.6%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 34.0%#126 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.0%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 37.4% | 62.5%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 46.5%#8 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 2 projections
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