Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Akron 36.5, Robert Morris 9.2 at InfoCision Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Akron wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.3 points and 45.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Robert Morris is 2-0, scoring 28.5 and allowing 8 points per game (+20.5 per game). Akron is 0-1, scoring 16 and allowing 38 points per game (-22 per game).
Robert Morris plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Akron's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 5 and Akron by 50 about 80% of the time.
Akron gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Akron by about 25.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Robert Morris 10, Akron 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.7 points and the total by 9.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Robert Morris / Akron) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Akron -27.5 → Akron -26.5 | 42.75 → 45.5 | +1350 / -4850 |
| Bovada | Akron -27.5 → Akron -26.5 | 44 → 45.5 | +1300 / -6500 |
| DraftKings | Akron -27.5 → Akron -26.5 | 41.5 → 45.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Akron win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Akron -27.5 | 45.7 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Akron -26.5 | 45.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Akron -27 | 46.7 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Akron win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Akron -27.3 · market Akron -26.5 · difference +0.8 pts (Akron view)
- Total
- model 45.7 · market 45.5 · difference +0.2
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Akron than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Robert Morris 9.2, Akron 36.5 | Akron 96%right winner | 7.7 | 9.3 |
| New formula | Robert Morris 16.1, Akron 33.5 | Akron 85%right winner | 17.6 | 5.4 |
Final: Robert Morris 10, Akron 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Robert Morris vs Akron: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Robert Morris | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.2 | 22.3#108 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 27.4#86 |
| Yards per play | 5.05 | 5.26#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 6.14#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.4 | 148.0#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.9 | 214.2#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 175.7#87 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 164.3 | 224.8#83 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.08#81 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.17#57 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 2.08#62 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 2.83#122 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.07#119 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.01#76 |
| Success rate | 35.6% | 38.9%#113 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 41.5%#67 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 13.1%#48 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.9%#84 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 14.2%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 15.6%#129 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.63 | 3.22#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 3.76#59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | own 30#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | own 32#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.5 | 68.9#40 |
| Stat | Robert Morris | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.07#118 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.07#107 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.03#89 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.01#66 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.6% | 40.6%#98 |
| Passing success rate | 33.4% | 37.1%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0% | 19.5%#95 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1% | 28.0%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 28.9%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.1% | 33.1%#130 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6% | 36.2%#30 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 46.6%#126 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.0% | 55.6%#39 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Robert Morris schedule · Akron schedule · all Week 2 projections
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