Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Auburn 28.6, Southern Miss 19.6 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Auburn wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 48.2 combined points.
Southern Miss is 1-0, scoring 49 and allowing 3 points per game (+46 per game). Auburn is 1-0, scoring 17 and allowing 16 points per game (+1 per game).
Expect Southern Miss to find it hard going: Auburn's strong defense (23rd) outranks Southern Miss's below-average offense (96th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.2 points against an average defense). Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Southern Miss's below-average defense (100th); that mismatch is where most of Auburn's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 14 and Auburn by 32 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Auburn by about 6.9. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26 points and the total by 2.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Miss / Auburn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Auburn -29.75 → Auburn -32.75 | 52.75 → 56.75 | +3000 / -10000 |
| DraftKings | Auburn -29.5 → Auburn -32.5 | 52.5 → 56.5 | +3000 / -10000 |
| Bovada | Auburn -30 → Auburn -33 | 53 → 57 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Auburn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Auburn -9 | 48.2 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Auburn -33 | 56.8 | 97% |
| Blended projection | Auburn -29 | 56.5 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Auburn win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 97% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model Auburn -9 · market Auburn -32.75 · difference -23.7 pts (Auburn view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 56.75 · difference -8.5
Model margin is 23.7 pts more toward Southern Miss than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Miss 19.6, Auburn 28.6 | Auburn 72%right winner | 26.0 | 2.8 |
| New formula | Southern Miss 15.6, Auburn 33.9 | Auburn 87%right winner | 16.6 | 1.5 |
Final: Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Miss vs Auburn: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Miss | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.8#58 | 26.8#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#84 | 20.7#34 |
| Yards per play | 6.06#53 | 5.68#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.90#79 | 5.16#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.5#97 | 195.7#31 |
| Net passing yards per game | 271.5#22 | 190.1#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.5#111 | 111.0#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.6#107 | 232.0#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#60 | 0.50#5 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.08#2 | 1.17#58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#32 | 2.58#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#57 | 3.58#132 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#75 | +0.04#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#29 | -0.07#32 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#110 | 43.6%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#56 | 37.8%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#74 | 11.0%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#64 | 11.8%#54 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#58 | 13.7%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#74 | 14.2%#115 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#60 | 3.98#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09#96 | 3.63#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#60 | own 28#109 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#52 | own 30#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#37 | 67.9#50 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#103 | +0.11#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#54 | -0.04#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#61 | -0.21#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#20 | +0.07#89 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6%#113 | 47.4%#28 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#91 | 39.7%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#72 | 15.8%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#75 | 27.2%#108 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#69 | 30.9%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.5%#61 | 40.4%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.0%#133 | 37.9%#43 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.9%#63 | 51.3%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.9%#94 | 59.0%#60 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Miss schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 2 projections
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