Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Penn State 31.2, Temple 22.1 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Penn State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 53.3 combined points.
Penn State (No. 16) is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 0 points per game (+45 per game). Temple is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 14 points per game (+24 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Penn State's strong offense (35th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) against Temple's below-average defense (102nd). Penn State's strong defense (19th) should limit Temple's below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Penn State by 32 and Temple by 13 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Penn State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Penn State 27, Temple 9. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.9 points and the total by 17.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Penn State / Temple) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -22.5 → Penn State -24.25 | 50.5 → 49.75 | -3050 / +1200 |
| Bovada | Penn State -23.5 → Penn State -24 | 49.5 → 50 | -3300 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | Penn State -21.5 → Penn State -24.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | -2800 / +1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Temple win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Penn State -9 | 53.3 | 28% |
| Market consensus | Penn State -24 | 49.8 | 7% |
| Blended projection | Penn State -22 | 50.8 | 7% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Temple win probability
- model 28% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +20 pts
- Margin
- model Penn State -9.1 · market Penn State -24.25 · difference +15.2 pts (Temple view)
- Total
- model 53.3 · market 49.75 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 15.2 pts more toward Temple than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Penn State 31.2, Temple 22.1 | Penn State 72%right winner | 8.9 | 17.3 |
| New formula | Penn State 31.7, Temple 22.2 | Penn State 72%right winner | 8.5 | 17.9 |
Final: Penn State 27, Temple 9. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Penn State vs Temple: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Penn State | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0#34 | 27.8#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#31 | 29.7#100 |
| Yards per play | 5.79#75 | 5.50#102 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#30 | 6.26#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 176.7#61 | 142.9#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 176.8#114 | 180.0#113 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.8#42 | 187.9#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.5#9 | 192.1#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.77#25 | 0.33#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.77#107 | 0.75#113 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#46 | 1.17#126 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#30 | 1.50#42 |
| Stat | Penn State | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#40 | +0.11#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#45 | +0.09#114 |
| Success rate | 46.1%#29 | 44.3%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.4%#64 | 45.1%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#123 | 12.5%#66 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#33 | 14.0%#118 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#47 | 9.6%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#18 | 11.0%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#25 | 4.81#8 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#64 | 4.90#136 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#8 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#50 | own 26#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.1#121 | 58.8#133 |
| Stat | Penn State | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#42 | -0.00#88 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#50 | +0.21#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#69 | +0.06#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#35 | +0.12#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#30 | 44.3%#59 |
| Passing success rate | 44.6%#33 | 43.9%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#33 | 19.8%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#57 | 27.6%#101 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9%#42 | 31.6%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.9%#36 | 38.5%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4%#67 | 41.1%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.3%#33 | 70.5%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#61 | 75.7%#131 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Penn State schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 2 projections
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