Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Carolina 30, App State 22 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: East Carolina wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 52.5 combined points.
App State is 1-0, scoring 55 and allowing 3 points per game (+52 per game). East Carolina is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 48 points per game (-38 per game).
Expect App State to find it hard going: East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) outranks App State's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense). East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) meets App State's below-average defense (105th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points East Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 14 and East Carolina by 31 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Carolina by about 6.1. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: App State 27, East Carolina 24. App State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11.2 points).
More: App State schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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