Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Coastal Carolina 41.7, Fordham 8 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Coastal Carolina wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.7 points and 49.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Fordham is 0-2, scoring 7 and allowing 31 points per game (-24 per game). Coastal Carolina is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 31 points per game (-7 per game).
Fordham plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Coastal Carolina's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 11 and Coastal Carolina by 56 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Coastal Carolina by about 31.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Fordham 7, Coastal Carolina 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 2.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fordham / Coastal Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Coastal Carolina -33 → Coastal Carolina -37 | 52.75 → 54.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | Coastal Carolina -34.5 → Coastal Carolina -37.5 | 53 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Coastal Carolina -31.5 → Coastal Carolina -36.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Coastal Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Coastal Carolina -33.5 | 49.6 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Coastal Carolina -37 | 54.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Coastal Carolina -36.5 | 54.7 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Coastal Carolina win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Coastal Carolina -33.7 · market Coastal Carolina -37 · difference -3.3 pts (Coastal Carolina view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 54.5 · difference -4.9
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Fordham than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fordham 8.0, Coastal Carolina 41.7 | Coastal Carolina 99%right winner | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| New formula | Fordham 11.4, Coastal Carolina 40.5 | Coastal Carolina 96%right winner | 8.9 | 0.1 |
Final: Fordham 7, Coastal Carolina 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fordham vs Coastal Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Fordham | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 22.2#109 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.1 | 33.1#125 |
| Yards per play | 4.85 | 5.19#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 6.37#120 |
| Rushing yards per game | 112.8 | 165.5#72 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.3 | 175.7#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.4 | 218.5#131 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.4 | 237.8#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 1.62#126 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.54#17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.46#109 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.33 | 1.77#70 |
| Stat | Fordham | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.03#106 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.02#79 |
| Success rate | 35.5% | 37.8%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 42.1%#76 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 12.6%#62 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2% | 13.2%#101 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 11.7%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.1% | 12.9%#96 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.78 | 3.99#69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.74 | 3.90#72 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 30#64 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 31#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.2 | 65.8#75 |
| Stat | Fordham | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.06#50 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.24 | -0.11#116 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17 | +0.04#92 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.01#63 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8% | 42.6%#82 |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 30.5%#134 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 19.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.5% | 26.9%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 29.9%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6% | 35.5%#114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7% | 39.7%#57 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9% | 59.4%#78 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.3% | 60.4%#72 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fordham schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 2 projections
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