Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Washington 34.2, Utah State 19.3 at Husky Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Washington wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.9 points and 53.4 combined points.
Utah State is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 29 points per game (-12 per game). Washington (No. 19) is 1-0, scoring 24 and allowing 10 points per game (+14 per game).
Expect Utah State to find it hard going: Washington's strong defense (16th) outranks Utah State's below-average offense (94th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense). Washington's strong offense (25th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Utah State's below-average defense (116th); that mismatch is where most of Washington's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 8 and Washington by 37 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington by about 12.8. The game is on BTN.
Result: Utah State 14, Washington 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.9 points and the total by 23.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Utah State / Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington -25.5 → Washington -28.5 | 56 → 55.5 | +1650 / -5750 |
| Bovada | Washington -26.5 → Washington -28.5 | 55.5 | +1300 / -5000 |
| DraftKings | Washington -24.5 → Washington -28.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Washington -15 | 53.4 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Washington -28.5 | 55.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Washington -26.5 | 55.7 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Washington -14.9 · market Washington -28.5 · difference -13.6 pts (Washington view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 55.5 · difference -2.1
Model margin is 13.6 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Utah State 19.3, Washington 34.2 | Washington 84%right winner | 12.9 | 23.4 |
| New formula | Utah State 12.9, Washington 41.8 | Washington 96%right winner | 26.9 | 24.7 |
Final: Utah State 14, Washington 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Utah State vs Washington: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Utah State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#36 | 34.1#17 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.7#90 | 18.7#15 |
| Yards per play | 6.11#47 | 6.62#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.80#68 | 5.10#17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.1#62 | 182.8#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8#63 | 232.4#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 184.5#99 | 113.2#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.6#119 | 216.0#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.69#13 | 0.85#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#65 | 1.23#44 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#51 | 1.85#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.23#127 | 2.31#105 |
| Stat | Utah State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#52 | +0.16#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#73 | -0.07#25 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#86 | 49.6%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#79 | 39.0%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#19 | 15.9%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#51 | 9.4%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#34 | 10.2%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4%#126 | 11.0%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.52#18 | 4.80#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69#47 | 3.38#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#94 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#69 | own 31#107 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1#69 | 62.8#109 |
| Stat | Utah State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#36 | +0.17#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#72 | +0.15#26 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#95 | -0.12#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#56 | -0.03#52 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#79 | 48.6%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 39.6%#90 | 50.6%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2%#92 | 17.0%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#50 | 36.9%#14 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.2%#103 | 28.8%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.5%#105 | 50.0%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#88 | 40.3%#63 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.9%#35 | 75.5%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4%#24 | 51.2%#20 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 2 projections
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