Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UAB 31.2, UL Monroe 24 at Protective Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: UAB wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 55.1 combined points.
UL Monroe is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 62 points per game (-49 per game). UAB is 0-1, scoring 23 and allowing 42 points per game (-19 per game).
UL Monroe's struggling offense (135th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets UAB's struggling defense (130th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UL Monroe puts up. UAB's below-average offense (107th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (134th); that mismatch is where most of UAB's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UL Monroe by 15 and UAB by 30 about 80% of the time.
UAB gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAB by about 5.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UL Monroe 20, UAB 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.2 points and the total by 9.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UL Monroe / UAB) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UAB -9 → UAB -9.25 | 55.25 → 53.5 | +305 / -397.5 |
| Bovada | UAB -10.5 → UAB -9 | 56 → 53.5 | +325 / -435 |
| DraftKings | UAB -7.5 → UAB -9.5 | 54.5 → 53.5 | +285 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UAB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UAB -7 | 55.1 | 68% |
| Market consensus | UAB -9.5 | 53.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | UAB -9 | 54.1 | 73% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UAB win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model UAB -7.2 · market UAB -9.25 · difference -2.0 pts (UAB view)
- Total
- model 55.1 · market 53.5 · difference +1.6
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward UL Monroe than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UL Monroe 24.0, UAB 31.2 | UAB 68%right winner | 1.2 | 9.1 |
| New formula | UL Monroe 23.3, UAB 36.0 | UAB 78%right winner | 6.7 | 13.3 |
Final: UL Monroe 20, UAB 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UL Monroe vs UAB: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UL Monroe | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6#130 | 26.4#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.9#119 | 38.3#135 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#87 | 6.03#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65#55 | 6.81#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 173.7#65 | 154.1#84 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.3#117 | 252.3#42 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.9#81 | 192.8#116 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.8#57 | 222.7#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#120 | 1.50#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#132 | 0.58#124 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#60 | 1.33#116 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#56 | 2.42#111 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#97 | +0.04#60 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#85 | +0.18#134 |
| Success rate | 37.9%#118 | 41.9%#78 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#63 | 49.0%#134 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#41 | 13.3%#43 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#61 | 14.0%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#72 | 8.6%#133 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#134 | 12.5%#87 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#120 | 3.91#76 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#66 | 4.76#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#127 | own 29#96 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#134 | own 35#136 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5#125 | 67.3#57 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#89 | +0.09#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#94 | -0.00#83 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | +0.08#116 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#104 | +0.34#136 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3%#129 | 42.7%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#115 | 41.2%#66 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1%#130 | 17.7%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#107 | 33.3%#36 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#98 | 32.1%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4%#123 | 48.4%#16 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#108 | 52.6%#135 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.2%#88 | 64.3%#50 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6%#31 | 77.6%#133 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UL Monroe schedule · UAB schedule · all Week 2 projections
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