Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Baylor 42.7, Prairie View A&M 14.6 at McLane Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Baylor wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.1 points and 57.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Prairie View A&M is 1-1, scoring 41 and allowing 31.5 points per game (+9.5 per game). Baylor is 0-1, scoring 16 and allowing 17 points per game (-1 per game).
Prairie View A&M plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Baylor's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 6 and Baylor by 51 about 80% of the time.
Baylor gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Baylor by about 26. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Prairie View A&M 3, Baylor 44. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.9 points and the total by 10.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Prairie View A&M / Baylor) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Baylor -37.5 | 56 → 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Baylor -37.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Baylor -37.5 | 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Baylor win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Baylor -28 | 57.2 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Baylor -37.5 | 55.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Baylor -36 | 56.0 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Baylor win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Baylor -28.1 · market Baylor -37.5 · difference -9.4 pts (Baylor view)
- Total
- model 57.2 · market 55.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 9.4 pts more toward Prairie View A&M than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Prairie View A&M 14.6, Baylor 42.7 | Baylor 97%right winner | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| New formula | Prairie View A&M 18.2, Baylor 39.9 | Baylor 91%right winner | 19.3 | 11.2 |
Final: Prairie View A&M 3, Baylor 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Prairie View A&M vs Baylor: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6 | 31.1#33 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9 | 32.6#122 |
| Yards per play | 6.95 | 6.10#48 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75 | 5.86#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.2 | 145.9#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.1 | 315.3#4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.2 | 202.8#124 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 131.6 | 195.2#37 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.58#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.77 | 1.00#70 |
| Sacks per game | 1.54 | 0.92#132 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.62 | 1.83#74 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.05#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.03#81 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 44.7%#45 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 44.5%#107 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.7% | 12.8%#58 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7% | 10.5%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 10.1%#125 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3% | 11.3%#45 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78 | 3.74#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.12 | 4.61#130 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#52 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 75.7#3 |
| Stat | Prairie View A&M | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.05#57 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.05#62 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.06#107 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.01#57 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4% | 46.0%#40 |
| Passing success rate | 42.1% | 43.9%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3% | 16.1%#34 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7% | 34.1%#26 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 28.9%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 40.7%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.1% | 39.5%#54 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.9% | 58.0%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.2% | 65.1%#103 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Prairie View A&M schedule · Baylor schedule · all Week 2 projections
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