Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 32.4, Georgia 31 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Alabama wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 63.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Georgia (No. 2) is 5-0, scoring 51.4 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+38 per game). Alabama (No. 6) is 5-0, scoring 49.6 and allowing 20.8 points per game (+28.8 per game).
Georgia's elite offense (2nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.1 points against an average defense) meets Alabama's elite defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia puts up. Alabama's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.5 points against an average defense) meets Georgia's elite defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Alabama puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 21 and Alabama by 24 about 80% of the time.
Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Georgia would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on ABC.
Result: Georgia 20, Alabama 17. Georgia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia / Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -2 → Alabama -2.5 | 53 → 51.75 | -2.5 / -117.5 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -3 → Alabama -2.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +105 / -125 |
| Bovada | Georgia -1 → Alabama -2.5 | 55.5 → 52 | -110 / -110 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -1.5 | 63.4 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -2.5 | 51.8 | 52% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -2.5 | 53.1 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 52% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -1.4 · market Alabama -2.5 · difference -1.1 pts (Alabama view)
- Total
- model 63.4 · market 51.75 · difference +11.6
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia 31.0, Alabama 32.4 | Alabama 54%wrong winner | 4.4 | 26.4 |
| New formula | Georgia 31.6, Alabama 33.4 | Alabama 55%wrong winner | 4.8 | 28.0 |
Final: Georgia 20, Alabama 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia vs Alabama: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 51.4#1 | 49.6#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#12 | 20.8#51 |
| Yards per play | 7.81#4 | 7.14#15 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.30#7 | 5.52#70 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.6#31 | 195.6#46 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8#55 | 267.0#36 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 81.6#5 | 96.2#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.2#45 | 244.0#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.20#3 | 0.80#62 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40#21 | 2.40#3 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#42 | 3.20#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#18 | 2.40#102 |
| Stat | Georgia | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#19 | +0.30#2 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#19 | -0.04#31 |
| Success rate | 53.1%#3 | 50.9%#8 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.4%#4 | 34.5%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.1%#16 | 17.9%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.2%#13 | 13.1%#101 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#27 | 17.6%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#20 | 14.0%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.19#5 | 5.68#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#80 | 4.67#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#11 | own 34#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#53 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.8#123 | 64.8#77 |
| Stat | Georgia | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#25 | +0.20#14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#31 | +0.41#8 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17#3 | -0.02#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#49 | -0.06#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 58.0%#2 | 52.1%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 56.2%#4 | 49.6%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#44 | 18.1%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#62 | 37.8%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#17 | 24.5%#23 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.3%#5 | 49.1%#27 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.5%#65 | 30.9%#20 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.4%#4 | 85.2%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.6%#116 | 76.9%#125 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia schedule · Alabama schedule · all Week 6 projections
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