Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama 36, Auburn 16 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Alabama wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.7 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Auburn is 4-3 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.4 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.3 per game). Alabama (No. 10) is 6-2 against the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.3 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+17 per game).
Alabama's elite defense (7th) should limit Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Alabama's elite offense (5th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.4 points against an average defense) against Auburn's strong defense (32nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Auburn by 3 and Alabama by 42 about 80% of the time.
Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama by about 17.6.
Auburn vs Alabama: stat comparison
| Stat | Auburn | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.4#93 | 38.3#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#69 | 21.3#50 |
| Yards per play | 5.48#112 | 6.64#28 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.60#70 | 5.70#75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.4#53 | 166.5#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.0#103 | 246.9#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.3#77 | 121.1#24 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.4#118 | 232.4#106 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#77 | 1.13#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#32 | 2.00#3 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#49 | 2.50#34 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.29#136 | 2.88#124 |
| Stat | Auburn | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#93 | +0.17#32 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#90 | +0.00#45 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#100 | 46.8%#32 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#88 | 37.6%#29 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#47 | 16.1%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#28 | 12.3%#83 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#94 | 14.9%#45 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8%#123 | 16.3%#129 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.98#82 | 4.73#26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#55 | 4.55#119 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#112 | own 33#17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#51 | own 26#11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#36 | 62.3#104 |
| Stat | Auburn | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#63 | +0.14#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#107 | +0.21#33 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#87 | 0.00#56 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#86 | +0.00#49 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#87 | 48.4%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#97 | 45.4%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#38 | 19.0%#98 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#55 | 32.3%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#102 | 29.2%#65 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.3%#53 | 43.2%#54 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#46 | 36.2%#45 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#52 | 82.4%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#101 | 64.0%#93 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Auburn schedule · Alabama schedule · all Week 13 projections
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