Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Washington 29, Minnesota 19.8 at Husky Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Washington wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 48.7 combined points.
Minnesota is 2-1, scoring 37.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+20.4 per game). Washington is 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 13.3 points per game (+16 per game).
Washington's strong defense (19th) should limit Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27 points against an average defense). Washington's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense) meets Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Washington puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Minnesota by 13 and Washington by 32 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington by about 7.1. The game is on Fox.
Result: Minnesota 27, Washington 24. Minnesota won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Minnesota / Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington -9.25 → Washington -12.25 | 44.75 | +312.5 / -402.5 |
| DraftKings | Washington -9.5 → Washington -12.5 | 44.5 | +350 / -455 |
| Bovada | Washington -9 → Washington -12 | 45 | +275 / -350 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Washington -9 | 48.7 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Washington -12.5 | 44.8 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Washington -12 | 46.2 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Washington -9.2 · market Washington -12.25 · difference -3.1 pts (Washington view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 44.75 · difference +4.0
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Minnesota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Minnesota 19.8, Washington 29.0 | Washington 73%wrong winner | 12.2 | 2.3 |
| New formula | Minnesota 19.1, Washington 29.1 | Washington 74%wrong winner | 13.0 | 2.8 |
Final: Minnesota 27, Washington 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Minnesota vs Washington: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Minnesota | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.7#43 | 29.3#83 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3#43 | 13.3#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#91 | 6.63#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.57#27 | 4.80#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.3#125 | 138.7#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.3#41 | 297.0#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.3#53 | 120.3#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.3#13 | 180.3#53 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#57 | 0.33#29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#119 | 2.00#7 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#98 | 2.67#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#17 | 1.00#44 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#88 | +0.05#93 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#51 | -0.01#49 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#29 | 42.9%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#79 | 38.3%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0%#50 | 12.8%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#42 | 11.8%#76 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#30 | 17.8%#16 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#64 | 10.6%#25 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.05#87 | 3.60#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.20#132 | 3.65#55 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#7 | own 34#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 20#1 | own 25#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7#73 | 65.7#74 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#128 | -0.03#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#67 | +0.10#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#110 | -0.08#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#22 | +0.07#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.1%#17 | 43.8%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 45.3%#57 | 48.6%#37 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#127 | 19.4%#103 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7%#124 | 24.9%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.4%#22 | 29.4%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3%#48 | 41.0%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#47 | 31.7%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#73 | 51.0%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#109 | 54.8%#54 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Minnesota schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 4 projections
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