Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia 33.1, Oklahoma 16.5 at Sanford Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Georgia wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.6 points and 49.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Oklahoma is 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 7.7 points per game (+17.3 per game). Georgia (No. 2) is 3-0, scoring 59.3 and allowing 13.3 points per game (+46 per game).
Georgia's elite defense (7th) should limit Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (46th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.2 points against an average defense). Georgia's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.8 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma's elite defense (3rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma by 6 and Georgia by 39 about 80% of the time.
Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia by about 14.5. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.4 points and the total by 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma / Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -12 → Georgia -11.25 | 48 → 43.75 | +420 / -585 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -10 → Georgia -11.5 | 52.5 → 43.5 | +390 / -520 |
| Bovada | Georgia -14 → Georgia -11 | 43.5 → 44 | +450 / -650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -16.5 | 49.6 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -11.5 | 43.8 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -12 | 45.4 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -16.6 · market Georgia -11.25 · difference +5.4 pts (Georgia view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 43.75 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma 16.5, Georgia 33.1 | Georgia 86%right winner | 11.4 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Oklahoma 16.0, Georgia 32.0 | Georgia 85%right winner | 12.0 | 5.9 |
Final: Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma vs Georgia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Oklahoma | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#99 | 59.3#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 7.7#4 | 13.3#23 |
| Yards per play | 5.90#94 | 8.60#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.04#10 | 3.63#4 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.7#124 | 255.3#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 225.7#74 | 252.3#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.3#70 | 75.0#6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 81.7#2 | 156.3#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#106 | 0.00#1 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#131 | 1.00#47 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#3 | 2.33#34 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#72 | 1.00#36 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00#109 | +0.20#30 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.16#9 | -0.06#27 |
| Success rate | 39.2%#112 | 50.6%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 29.5%#4 | 35.2%#20 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#97 | 17.5%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.5%#3 | 10.0%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 19.9%#7 | 16.0%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3%#125 | 12.7%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.15#81 | 4.90#26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.53#1 | 4.11#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#108 | own 35#20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#120 | own 28#68 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3#114 | 59.0#116 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#134 | +0.16#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#64 | +0.21#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#27 | -0.13#16 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.26#4 | -0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8%#117 | 65.5%#1 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#87 | 60.8%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.5%#135 | 16.7%#70 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#74 | 31.6%#70 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#53 | 21.6%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2%#51 | 66.7%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.7%#4 | 40.4%#88 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.0%#134 | 73.0%#29 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 14.3%#2 | 65.3%#90 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma schedule · Georgia schedule · all Week 4 projections
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