Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Virginia 31.6, Oklahoma State 25.2 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: West Virginia wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 56.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Oklahoma State is 2-1, scoring 36 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+17.7 per game). West Virginia is 3-0, scoring 40.3 and allowing 19.3 points per game (+21 per game).
Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) meets West Virginia's below-average defense (83rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oklahoma State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: West Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) against Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 16 and West Virginia by 29 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour West Virginia by about 4.3. The game is on FS1.
Result: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. Oklahoma State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma State / West Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -0.5 → West Virginia -1.5 | 58.5 → 60.5 | +102.5 / -122.5 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -2.5 → West Virginia -1.5 | 57.5 → 60.5 | +105 / -125 |
| Bovada | West Virginia -1.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +100 / -120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | West Virginia -6.5 | 56.7 | 66% |
| Market consensus | West Virginia -1.5 | 60.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | West Virginia -2.5 | 60.3 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Virginia win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model West Virginia -6.4 · market West Virginia -1.5 · difference +4.9 pts (West Virginia view)
- Total
- model 56.7 · market 60.5 · difference -3.8
Model margin is 4.9 pts more toward West Virginia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma State 25.2, West Virginia 31.6 | West Virginia 66%wrong winner | 23.4 | 8.3 |
| New formula | Oklahoma State 24.9, West Virginia 32.1 | West Virginia 68%wrong winner | 24.3 | 8.0 |
Final: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma State vs West Virginia: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#51 | 40.3#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3#48 | 19.3#54 |
| Yards per play | 6.98#33 | 6.83#41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.11#56 | 5.45#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.7#31 | 288.7#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 335.7#8 | 173.3#110 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.0#29 | 144.0#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.0#39 | 224.7#92 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#132 | 0.00#3 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#103 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#103 | 3.33#11 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#49 | 0.67#16 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#113 | +0.24#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#31 | +0.08#94 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#55 | 45.3%#45 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.3%#19 | 40.8%#82 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#58 | 15.3%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#55 | 12.3%#82 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#93 | 15.6%#45 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#21 | 9.4%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.21#76 | 5.26#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43#41 | 2.85#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#91 | own 31#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#112 | own 28#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.7#3 | 67.7#52 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#99 | +0.13#43 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#106 | +0.59#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#39 | +0.06#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#38 | +0.10#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0%#83 | 45.4%#69 |
| Passing success rate | 45.2%#58 | 45.0%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#63 | 13.3%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#50 | 34.0%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 16.4%#2 | 26.3%#48 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#108 | 55.8%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 16.2%#1 | 35.7%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9%#115 | 66.7%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#44 | 50.0%#37 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 4 projections
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