Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arkansas 28.2, Tulsa 23 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Arkansas wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Tulsa is 3-0, scoring 29.7 and allowing 9 points per game (+20.7 per game). Arkansas is 1-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 34 points per game (-14.7 per game).
Tulsa's below-average offense (110th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) meets Arkansas's below-average defense (96th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up. Arkansas's below-average offense (89th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets Tulsa's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arkansas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 17 and Arkansas by 28 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arkansas by about 3.1. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.8 points and the total by 11.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulsa / Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arkansas -7.75 → Arkansas -7 | 52.75 → 51.5 | +222.5 / -272.5 |
| DraftKings | Arkansas -8.5 → Arkansas -7 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +220 / -270 |
| Bovada | Arkansas -7 | 53 → 51.5 | +225 / -275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arkansas -5 | 51.2 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Arkansas -7 | 51.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Arkansas -6.5 | 52.2 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Arkansas -5.2 · market Arkansas -7 · difference -1.8 pts (Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 51.2 · market 51.5 · difference -0.3
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Tulsa than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tulsa 23.0, Arkansas 28.2 | Arkansas 63%right winner | 22.8 | 11.2 |
| New formula | Tulsa 24.0, Arkansas 27.4 | Arkansas 59%right winner | 24.6 | 11.5 |
Final: Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tulsa vs Arkansas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Tulsa | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7#80 | 19.3#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.0#7 | 34.0#122 |
| Yards per play | 5.92#93 | 4.58#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#36 | 6.45#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 226.7#32 | 92.7#135 |
| Net passing yards per game | 164.3#118 | 243.3#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.3#52 | 162.3#91 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.7#93 | 192.3#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#19 | 1.33#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#31 | 0.67#80 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#14 | 2.00#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#59 | 3.33#132 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#82 | -0.11#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#6 | +0.14#116 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#109 | 42.2%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.8%#38 | 46.9%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#112 | 8.1%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.7%#4 | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#96 | 14.1%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#90 | 14.9%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#121 | 3.63#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.67#2 | 5.94#137 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#41 | own 27#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#3 | own 33#124 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#65 | 73.3#14 |
| Stat | Tulsa | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.23#11 | -0.18#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#122 | -0.06#109 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.21#4 | +0.31#138 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#21 | -0.07#34 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.6%#77 | 34.8%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 34.9%#120 | 47.8%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#49 | 15.3%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 17.2%#136 | 32.7%#61 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.8%#108 | 22.9%#19 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 24.4%#134 | 46.7%#45 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.8%#37 | 43.3%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#118 | 63.6%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 16.7%#3 | 86.7%#130 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 4 projections
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