Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia State 31.9, Northern Illinois 24.6 at Center Parc Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Georgia State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 56.4 combined points.
Northern Illinois is 0-3, scoring 13.7 and allowing 36.7 points per game (-23 per game). Georgia State is 2-1, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game).
Northern Illinois's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense) meets Georgia State's below-average defense (112th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Northern Illinois puts up. Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Northern Illinois's below-average defense (108th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 15 and Georgia State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Georgia State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia State by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.7 points and the total by 7.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Illinois / Georgia State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia State -9.25 → Georgia State -8.75 | 54.75 → 56.5 | +282.5 / -362.5 |
| DraftKings | Georgia State -8.5 | 54.5 → 56.5 | +275 / -345 |
| Bovada | Georgia State -10 → Georgia State -9 | 55 → 56.5 | +290 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia State -7.5 | 56.4 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Georgia State -9 | 56.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Georgia State -8.5 | 56.8 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia State win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia State -7.3 · market Georgia State -8.75 · difference -1.5 pts (Georgia State view)
- Total
- model 56.4 · market 56.5 · difference -0.1
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Illinois 24.6, Georgia State 31.9 | Georgia State 68%right winner | 13.7 | 7.4 |
| New formula | Northern Illinois 23.7, Georgia State 32.7 | Georgia State 72%right winner | 12.0 | 7.3 |
Final: Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Illinois vs Georgia State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.7#134 | 40.0#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.7#130 | 23.7#79 |
| Yards per play | 4.49#136 | 6.99#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25#110 | 5.63#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 92.0#137 | 236.3#24 |
| Net passing yards per game | 188.0#99 | 278.7#35 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.3#108 | 163.0#93 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.0#116 | 148.7#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#95 | 1.33#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#42 | 0.67#101 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#45 | 2.00#62 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.67#136 | 0.67#22 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#129 | +0.20#29 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#128 | +0.08#96 |
| Success rate | 38.0%#121 | 47.0%#32 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5%#129 | 38.3%#49 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.3%#135 | 16.2%#18 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#100 | 16.9%#134 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#104 | 14.2%#66 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#123 | 11.1%#33 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.83#135 | 4.61#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.32#99 | 4.37#105 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#120 | own 33#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#99 | 73.7#13 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#114 | +0.15#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#121 | +0.25#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#115 | +0.19#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#116 | -0.03#51 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7%#98 | 44.1%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 35.9%#116 | 50.0%#32 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8%#126 | 14.9%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 14.6%#138 | 41.9%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.2%#126 | 19.7%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6%#116 | 51.2%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 61.9%#138 | 28.6%#22 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#105 | 64.6%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#99 | 50.0%#42 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · Georgia State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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