Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 28.4, Texas A&M 26.8 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: LSU wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Texas A&M (No. 23) is 2-1, scoring 39.7 and allowing 17 points per game (+22.7 per game). LSU (No. 10) is 2-1, scoring 40 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+21.3 per game).
Texas A&M's elite offense (13th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.8 points against an average defense) meets LSU's elite defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas A&M puts up. LSU's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.9 points against an average defense) meets Texas A&M's strong defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points LSU puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas A&M by 21 and LSU by 24 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texas A&M would be favoured by 0.5. The game is on ABC.
Result: Texas A&M 6, LSU 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.4 points and the total by 14.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas A&M / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -6.25 → LSU -8.5 | 55 → 52.25 | +282.5 / -362.5 |
| DraftKings | LSU -3 → LSU -8.5 | 57.5 → 52.5 | +275 / -345 |
| Bovada | LSU -9.5 → LSU -8.5 | 52.5 → 52 | +290 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -1.5 | 55.2 | 54% |
| Market consensus | LSU -8.5 | 52.3 | 75% |
| Blended projection | LSU -7.5 | 53.0 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -21 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -1.6 · market LSU -8.5 · difference -6.9 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 52.25 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 6.9 pts more toward Texas A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas A&M 26.8, LSU 28.4 | LSU 54%right winner | 27.4 | 14.2 |
| New formula | Texas A&M 26.9, LSU 28.8 | LSU 55%right winner | 27.1 | 14.6 |
Final: Texas A&M 6, LSU 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas A&M vs LSU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas A&M | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.7#33 | 40.0#28 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#39 | 18.7#50 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#114 | 6.56#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.18#109 | 4.46#20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.3#59 | 213.0#37 |
| Net passing yards per game | 216.7#82 | 329.0#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.7#30 | 63.3#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.7#77 | 196.7#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#107 | 2.00#131 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#48 | 1.67#14 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#96 | 4.33#2 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#58 | 2.33#103 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#83 | +0.02#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#45 | -0.29#2 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#42 | 44.5%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#54 | 27.9%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#119 | 17.5%#9 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.2%#135 | 10.3%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#80 | 22.8%#1 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#89 | 16.0%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.57#44 | 4.24#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#59 | 4.90#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#6 | own 36#13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 26#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 76.0#9 | 82.7#1 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#71 | +0.14#40 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#86 | -0.12#120 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#43 | -0.32#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#66 | -0.27#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9%#42 | 44.9%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 43.5%#73 | 44.1%#68 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#46 | 16.8%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#15 | 39.1%#19 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.5%#101 | 21.8%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#58 | 61.2%#8 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#9 | 38.1%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.6%#42 | 58.8%#96 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#34 | 100.0%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas A&M schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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