Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rutgers 43.8, Howard 12.7 at SHI Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Rutgers wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.1 points and 56.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Howard is 1-2, scoring 17.3 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-18.4 per game). Rutgers is 0-3, scoring 25.7 and allowing 35.7 points per game (-10 per game).
Howard plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Rutgers's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rutgers by 9 and Rutgers by 54 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rutgers by about 29. The game is on BTN.
Result: Howard 7, Rutgers 58. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.9 points and the total by 8.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Howard / Rutgers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rutgers -42.25 | 55.25 → 57.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Rutgers -43 → Rutgers -42 | 55 → 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Rutgers -41.5 → Rutgers -42.5 | 55.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rutgers win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rutgers -31 | 56.5 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Rutgers -42.5 | 57.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Rutgers -40.5 | 57.7 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rutgers win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Rutgers -31.1 · market Rutgers -42.25 · difference -11.1 pts (Rutgers view)
- Total
- model 56.5 · market 57.5 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 11.1 pts more toward Howard than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Howard 12.7, Rutgers 43.8 | Rutgers 98%right winner | 19.9 | 8.5 |
| New formula | Howard 15.2, Rutgers 41.0 | Rutgers 96%right winner | 25.1 | 8.8 |
Final: Howard 7, Rutgers 58. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Howard vs Rutgers: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Howard | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.3 | 25.7#95 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.7 | 35.7#126 |
| Yards per play | 4.71 | 6.68#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62 | 6.82#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 97.0 | 129.7#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.0 | 313.3#17 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.3 | 177.0#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.7 | 243.7#111 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 3.33#138 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.67#89 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.00#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.33 | 3.00#125 |
| Stat | Howard | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | 0.00#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.20#127 |
| Success rate | 29.2% | 44.0%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 47.6%#130 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 12.0%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2% | 15.7%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 9.7%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.8% | 17.9%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.30 | 3.71#105 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.93 | 4.56#115 |
| Average starting field position | opp 23 | own 28#114 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 18 | own 33#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 66.3#62 |
| Stat | Howard | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.02#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.02#92 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.20#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.19#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 27.3% | 44.8%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 30.0% | 43.3%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0% | 18.2%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.4% | 41.5%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 45.5% | 32.7%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.8% | 38.2%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 39.4%#77 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 4.8% | 66.7%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 28.5% | 50.0%#40 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 4 projections
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