Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Temple 29.8, Army 28.3 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Temple wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 58 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Army is 1-1, scoring 41.5 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+26 per game). Temple is 1-2, scoring 31.7 and allowing 30 points per game (+1.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Temple's below-average defense (113th). Temple's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Temple puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Army by 21 and Temple by 24 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Army would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Army 21, Temple 17. Army won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Army / Temple) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -3 → Army -4 | 49.25 → 48.5 | -174 / +147 |
| Bovada | Army -3 → Army -4 | 49 → 48.5 | -150 / +130 |
| DraftKings | Army -3 → Army -4 | 49.5 → 48.5 | -198 / +164 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Temple win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Temple -1.5 | 58.0 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Army -4 | 48.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Army -3 | 50.0 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Temple win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Temple -1.5 · market Army -4 · difference +5.5 pts (Temple view)
- Total
- model 58.0 · market 48.5 · difference +9.5
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward Temple than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Army 28.3, Temple 29.8 | Temple 54%wrong winner | 5.5 | 20.0 |
| New formula | Army 28.4, Temple 28.9 | Temple 51%wrong winner | 4.5 | 19.4 |
Final: Army 21, Temple 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Army vs Temple: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Army | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.5#25 | 31.7#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.5#28 | 30.0#114 |
| Yards per play | 7.54#13 | 5.85#98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.96#44 | 6.35#114 |
| Rushing yards per game | 397.0#1 | 229.7#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 100.5#135 | 135.0#126 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 105.5#27 | 100.3#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 162.5#34 | 319.0#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#43 | 1.00#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#136 | 0.67#96 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#116 | 1.00#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#10 | 2.00#95 |
| Stat | Army | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.33#4 | +0.08#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#114 | +0.15#119 |
| Success rate | 56.3%#1 | 42.5%#86 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#114 | 44.7%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.5%#10 | 12.6%#78 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#93 | 14.7%#122 |
| Havoc rate | 17.2%#21 | 10.5%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 6.8%#3 | 9.6%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.79#1 | 4.56#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.17#131 | 4.70#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#50 | own 30#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#16 | own 34#126 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#67 | 62.3#97 |
| Stat | Army | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.34#2 | +0.13#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#26 | -0.01#101 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00#67 | -0.00#64 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#118 | +0.27#121 |
| Rushing success rate | 57.3%#7 | 46.2%#62 |
| Passing success rate | 52.4%#25 | 36.1%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.3%#8 | 15.8%#60 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.4%#38 | 34.7%#46 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7%#118 | 35.1%#113 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#31 | 41.0%#81 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#61 | 51.3%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#62 | 80.0%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#96 | 61.5%#79 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Army schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 4 projections
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