Matchup analysis
Our model projects Old Dominion 26, Southern Miss 22 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Old Dominion wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game). Old Dominion is 2-6 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.5 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-11.3 per game).
Old Dominion's below-average defense (84th) should limit Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense). Old Dominion's struggling offense (130th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense) meets Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Old Dominion puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 19 and Old Dominion by 26 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Old Dominion by about 1.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Southern Miss vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
| Stat | Southern Miss | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#92 | 15.5#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4#125 | 26.8#97 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#63 | 4.06#138 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97#91 | 4.99#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.3#65 | 115.4#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.6#42 | 129.0#133 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 243.9#136 | 146.4#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.7#72 | 205.8#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#133 | 1.25#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#73 | 0.75#87 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#29 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#72 | 4.75#137 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#95 | -0.17#138 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#73 | -0.06#23 |
| Success rate | 41.4%#92 | 30.4%#138 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#92 | 39.3%#42 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#52 | 9.5%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#101 | 10.9%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#114 | 14.8%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#48 | 22.1%#138 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.73#98 | 2.87#135 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#83 | 3.71#57 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#118 | own 26#131 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#84 | own 35#136 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#27 | 60.1#120 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#27 | -0.12#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#123 | -0.23#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#72 | -0.14#5 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#79 | +0.02#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.6%#34 | 32.9%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 36.6%#117 | 27.7%#137 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.1%#3 | 30.5%#138 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.9%#134 | 28.0%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#89 | 30.7%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5%#131 | 34.2%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.9%#93 | 37.9%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.4%#72 | 47.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.2%#56 | 45.9%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Miss schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 13 projections
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