Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 31.9, Southern Miss 22.1 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Louisiana wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 54 combined points.
Louisiana is 5-2, scoring 30 and allowing 19.3 points per game (+10.7 per game). Southern Miss is 1-5, scoring 24.2 and allowing 32.7 points per game (-8.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (83rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense) against Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th). Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack defense (83rd) should limit Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 32 and Southern Miss by 13 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Louisiana 31, Southern Miss 35. Southern Miss won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana / Southern Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -11.5 | 53.5 | -490 / +360 |
| Opening line | Louisiana -10.5 | 52.5 | -425 / +330 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -11.5 | 52.5 | -470 / +360 |
| FanDuel | Louisiana -11.5 | 53.5 | -490 / +365 |
| BetRivers | Louisiana -10.5 | 52.5 | -400 / +310 |
| BetMGM | Louisiana -11.5 | 53.5 | -500 / +360 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -10 | 54.0 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -11.5 | 53.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -11.5 | 54.1 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Miss win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -9.8 · market Louisiana -11.5 · difference +1.7 pts (Southern Miss view)
- Total
- model 54.0 · market 53.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward Southern Miss than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana 31.9, Southern Miss 22.1 | Louisiana 74%wrong winner | 13.8 | 12.0 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Louisiana 31, Southern Miss 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Louisiana | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0#80 | 28.8#58 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2#96 | 27.4#84 |
| Yards per play | 5.51#100 | 6.06#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19#107 | 5.90#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 189.0#38 | 146.5#97 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.5#120 | 271.5#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.2#110 | 191.5#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.5#67 | 240.6#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#80 | 1.00#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#66 | 2.08#2 |
| Sacks per game | 1.62#99 | 2.38#32 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#60 | 1.69#57 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#98 | +0.02#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#93 | -0.07#29 |
| Success rate | 40.2%#101 | 39.4%#110 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#108 | 40.7%#56 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#84 | 12.2%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#53 | 12.2%#64 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#84 | 13.0%#58 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#86 | 12.2%#74 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#99 | 4.04#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#19 | 4.09#96 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 30#60 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 29#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5#104 | 69.0#37 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#33 | -0.04#103 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#121 | +0.07#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#105 | -0.01#61 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#83 | -0.14#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#87 | 38.6%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0%#130 | 39.5%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#96 | 18.5%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#114 | 30.1%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#64 | 29.4%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#67 | 41.5%#61 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%#117 | 49.0%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9%#109 | 61.9%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#38 | 63.9%#94 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.