Matchup analysis
Our model projects Marshall 29, UL Monroe 24 at Malone Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Marshall wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.2 points and 52.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Marshall is 4-3 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 30.7 points per game (-9 per game). UL Monroe is 1-6 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-17.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Marshall's below-average offense (108th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) against UL Monroe's struggling defense (130th). Marshall's below-average defense (118th) should limit UL Monroe's struggling offense (133rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Marshall by 28 and UL Monroe by 17 about 80% of the time.
UL Monroe gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Marshall is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Marshall vs UL Monroe: stat comparison
| Stat | Marshall | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.7#109 | 20.1#123 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.7#117 | 37.3#135 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#78 | 5.10#129 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65#130 | 6.48#123 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1#74 | 130.6#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.0#56 | 196.4#100 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.7#118 | 226.7#133 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.0#116 | 219.7#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#113 | 1.00#96 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#99 | 0.43#130 |
| Sacks per game | 0.86#136 | 1.86#88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#77 | 1.86#79 |
| Stat | Marshall | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#68 | +0.02#105 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#103 | +0.11#105 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#57 | 40.9%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#98 | 44.7%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#74 | 11.8%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#103 | 12.9%#94 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#121 | 12.4%#109 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#97 | 16.2%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#127 | 3.69#102 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#68 | 4.28#107 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 27#126 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 31#106 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9#51 | 64.1#89 |
| Stat | Marshall | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#38 | +0.07#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | -0.03#115 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#53 | +0.04#74 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#120 | +0.20#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.1%#30 | 43.6%#77 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#69 | 39.0%#100 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#84 | 19.2%#103 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#81 | 27.7%#109 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#74 | 34.2%#119 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1%#70 | 29.2%#136 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#72 | 45.5%#125 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.9%#120 | 60.7%#76 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.0%#64 | 57.9%#62 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Marshall schedule · UL Monroe schedule · all Week 13 projections
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