Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Baylor 29.6, Louisiana Tech 21 at McLane Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Baylor wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.6 points and 50.6 combined points.
Louisiana Tech is 1-1, scoring 47 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+21.5 per game). Baylor is 1-1, scoring 30 and allowing 10 points per game (+20 per game).
Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense) meets Baylor's middle-of-the-pack defense (49th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana Tech puts up. Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th); that mismatch is where most of Baylor's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Tech by 14 and Baylor by 31 about 80% of the time.
Baylor gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Baylor by about 6.5. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.4 points and the total by 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana Tech / Baylor) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Baylor -18.25 → Baylor -20.25 | 55.25 → 50.25 | +725 / -1225 |
| Bovada | Baylor -19 → Baylor -20 | 55 → 50 | +650 / -1100 |
| DraftKings | Baylor -17.5 → Baylor -20.5 | 55.5 → 50.5 | +800 / -1350 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Baylor win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Baylor -8.5 | 50.6 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Baylor -20.5 | 50.3 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Baylor -18.5 | 51.0 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Baylor win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -17 pts
- Margin
- model Baylor -8.6 · market Baylor -20.25 · difference -11.6 pts (Baylor view)
- Total
- model 50.6 · market 50.25 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 11.6 pts more toward Louisiana Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana Tech 21.0, Baylor 29.6 | Baylor 71%right winner | 8.4 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Louisiana Tech 22.9, Baylor 33.2 | Baylor 74%right winner | 6.8 | 1.1 |
Final: Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana Tech vs Baylor: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 47.0#20 | 30.0#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5#92 | 10.0#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.22#71 | 5.81#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.44#81 | 4.26#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.0#108 | 182.5#67 |
| Net passing yards per game | 216.5#83 | 340.5#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.0#59 | 98.0#29 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.0#124 | 172.5#52 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#119 | 2.00#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.50#4 | 2.00#16 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#29 | 5.00#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50#131 | 1.00#54 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#124 | +0.09#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.21#3 | -0.20#6 |
| Success rate | 33.8%#130 | 45.6%#45 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.9%#21 | 29.4%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#24 | 11.8%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#128 | 9.2%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 20.9%#5 | 22.0%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 21.5%#135 | 14.7%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.07#18 | 2.94#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.89#73 | 2.50#6 |
| Average starting field position | own 38#12 | own 33#40 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#125 | own 33#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.0#118 | 90.0#1 |
| Stat | Louisiana Tech | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#110 | +0.02#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13#122 | +0.14#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#20 | -0.23#7 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.27#8 | -0.16#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.1%#128 | 51.8%#32 |
| Passing success rate | 28.1%#135 | 41.3%#82 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#103 | 14.6%#34 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#104 | 46.2%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#60 | 22.0%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#64 | 42.9%#70 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#88 | 41.2%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 88.2%#6 | 44.4%#124 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.2%#20 | 50.0%#43 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Tech schedule · Baylor schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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