Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 30.5, UAB 25 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Louisiana wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 55.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UAB is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 31 points per game (-6.5 per game). Louisiana is 1-1, scoring 34 and allowing 28 points per game (+6 per game).
Louisiana's below-average defense (99th) should limit UAB's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense) against UAB's struggling defense (134th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAB by 17 and Louisiana by 28 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana by about 3.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UAB 14, Louisiana 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 20.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAB / Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -8.75 → Louisiana -7 | 58 → 55.5 | +245 / -304 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -10 → Louisiana -7 | 59.5 → 55.5 | +225 / -278 |
| Bovada | Louisiana -7.5 → Louisiana -7 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +265 / -330 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -5.5 | 55.5 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -7 | 55.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -7 | 55.9 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -5.5 · market Louisiana -7 · difference -1.5 pts (Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 55.5 · market 55.5 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward UAB than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAB 25.0, Louisiana 30.5 | Louisiana 64%right winner | 1.5 | 20.5 |
| New formula | UAB 21.9, Louisiana 38.8 | Louisiana 86%right winner | 9.9 | 25.7 |
Final: UAB 14, Louisiana 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAB vs Louisiana: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UAB | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5#99 | 34.0#60 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0#119 | 28.0#110 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#80 | 6.90#41 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58#88 | 5.32#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 240.0#25 | 200.0#49 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.5#99 | 217.5#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.0#109 | 145.0#88 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 118.0#13 | 201.0#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#98 | 1.50#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#115 | 2.00#15 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#120 | 1.50#92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#100 | 1.00#52 |
| Stat | UAB | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#73 | +0.16#32 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#106 | +0.17#126 |
| Success rate | 42.8%#78 | 42.2%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#120 | 48.7%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1%#116 | 14.4%#40 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#91 | 12.2%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#89 | 9.6%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#77 | 7.8%#7 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57#110 | 5.23#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28#105 | 5.25#130 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#63 | own 35#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#127 | own 26#38 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.5#25 | 60.5#99 |
| Stat | UAB | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#26 | +0.25#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#105 | +0.03#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#102 | -0.12#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#95 | +0.49#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.7%#34 | 41.5%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8%#101 | 43.2%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#53 | 18.8%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.1%#40 | 44.1%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8%#113 | 43.8%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.8%#14 | 33.3%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#53 | 59.3%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.0%#127 | 75.0%#30 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.2%#93 | 80.0%#120 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAB schedule · Louisiana schedule · all Week 3 projections
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