Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Michigan 22.5, Wyoming 19.1 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Central Michigan wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 41.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Wyoming is 1-1, scoring 17 and allowing 24 points per game (-7 per game). Central Michigan is 1-1, scoring 10 and allowing 24 points per game (-14 per game).
Expect Wyoming to find it hard going: Central Michigan's below-average defense (100th) outranks Wyoming's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense). Wyoming's below-average defense (92nd) should limit Central Michigan's struggling offense (137th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wyoming by 19 and Central Michigan by 26 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Michigan by about 1.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Wyoming 10, Central Michigan 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.6 points and the total by 7.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wyoming / Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Michigan -2 → Wyoming -1.75 | 39.5 → 39.75 | -11 / -9 |
| Bovada | Central Michigan -1.5 → Wyoming -2 | 39.5 → 40 | +100 / -120 |
| DraftKings | Central Michigan -2.5 → Wyoming -1.5 | 39.5 | -122 / +102 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Michigan -3.5 | 41.5 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Wyoming -1.5 | 39.8 | 50% |
| Blended projection | Wyoming -1 | 41.5 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Michigan win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 50% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Central Michigan -3.4 · market Wyoming -1.75 · difference +5.2 pts (Central Michigan view)
- Total
- model 41.5 · market 39.75 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Central Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wyoming 19.1, Central Michigan 22.5 | Central Michigan 59%right winner | 10.6 | 7.5 |
| New formula | Wyoming 16.3, Central Michigan 21.4 | Central Michigan 63%right winner | 8.9 | 3.6 |
Final: Wyoming 10, Central Michigan 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wyoming vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wyoming | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0#123 | 10.0#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#86 | 24.0#88 |
| Yards per play | 5.31#116 | 4.19#135 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.75#99 | 4.71#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.0#91 | 180.0#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 142.5#126 | 52.5#137 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.0#98 | 154.0#95 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#84 | 147.5#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.50#135 | 2.00#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#82 | 1.50#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#101 | 1.50#103 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#77 | 3.00#126 |
| Stat | Wyoming | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#112 | -0.18#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#70 | -0.05#40 |
| Success rate | 41.5%#93 | 29.2%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1%#97 | 44.4%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#57 | 7.9%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#85 | 7.7%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#69 | 8.5%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2%#117 | 18.0%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.55#112 | 2.33#135 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.13#24 | 4.80#122 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#49 | own 32#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#96 | own 32#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.5#121 | 55.5#122 |
| Stat | Wyoming | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.28#7 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#117 | -0.80#138 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#35 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#106 | -0.20#17 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3%#91 | 39.2%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#70 | 15.8%#137 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#90 | 7.4%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#101 | 14.3%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#80 | 26.3%#46 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.0%#126 | 33.3%#115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#91 | 48.1%#122 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.9%#71 | 33.3%#134 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.6%#35 | 100.0%#135 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wyoming schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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