Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona State 32.2, Kansas 28.3 on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Arizona State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 60.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Arizona State is 1-1, scoring 45 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+17.5 per game). Kansas is 1-1, scoring 36 and allowing 22 points per game (+14 per game).
Arizona State's strong offense (31st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd); that mismatch is where most of Arizona State's projected points come from. Expect Kansas to find it hard going: Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (42nd) outranks Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona State by 26 and Kansas by 19 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on FS1.
Result: Arizona State 24, Kansas 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 19.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Arizona State / Kansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona State -6 → Arizona State -5.25 | 54.75 → 50.75 | -224 / +185 |
| DraftKings | Arizona State -5.5 | 56.5 → 50.5 | -218 / +180 |
| Bovada | Arizona State -6.5 → Arizona State -5 | 53 → 51 | -230 / +190 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona State -4 | 60.4 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Arizona State -5 | 50.8 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Arizona State -5 | 52.0 | 37% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona State -3.9 · market Arizona State -5.25 · difference +1.4 pts (Kansas view)
- Total
- model 60.4 · market 50.75 · difference +9.6
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Kansas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arizona State 32.2, Kansas 28.3 | Arizona State 60%right winner | 3.1 | 19.4 |
| New formula | Arizona State 32.8, Kansas 24.9 | Arizona State 69%right winner | 0.9 | 16.7 |
Final: Arizona State 24, Kansas 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arizona State vs Kansas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Arizona State | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.0#27 | 36.0#49 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.5#104 | 22.0#76 |
| Yards per play | 8.67#6 | 6.39#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.19#21 | 5.19#65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 189.0#62 | 197.5#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 383.0#4 | 246.5#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 111.5#48 | 111.0#47 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 115.0#10 | 198.0#69 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#111 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#94 | 0.00#125 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#59 | 1.50#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#67 | 2.00#85 |
| Stat | Arizona State | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#19 | +0.17#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.15#9 | +0.06#90 |
| Success rate | 51.0%#9 | 41.3%#95 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.3%#33 | 30.5%#9 |
| Explosive play rate | 23.5%#1 | 17.3%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.8%#18 | 9.5%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#37 | 15.8%#47 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#67 | 14.4%#97 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.77#29 | 4.33#66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.13#126 | 3.08#20 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#43 | own 28#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 36#134 | own 35#130 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#70 | 69.5#39 |
| Stat | Arizona State | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#8 | +0.19#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#58 | +0.16#52 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#45 | -0.21#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.22#13 | +0.36#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.0%#69 | 43.4%#80 |
| Passing success rate | 55.2%#18 | 39.2%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#24 | 6.3%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 53.6%#2 | 24.3%#116 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 11.5%#2 | 27.9%#62 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#93 | 39.3%#83 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0%#21 | 32.1%#47 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#10 | 81.8%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#96 | 33.3%#14 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona State schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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