Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma State 43.4, Murray State 2.9 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Oklahoma State wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.5 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Murray State is 1-2, scoring 18.3 and allowing 28 points per game (-9.7 per game). Oklahoma State is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-3 per game).
Murray State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Oklahoma State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 18 and Oklahoma State by 63 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma State by about 38.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Murray State 0, Oklahoma State 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.5 points and the total by 12.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Murray State / Oklahoma State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -56 | 70.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -56.5 | 70.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Oklahoma State -55.5 | 70 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma State -40.5 | 46.3 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma State -56 | 70.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma State -54 | 68.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma State win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Oklahoma State -40.5 · market Oklahoma State -56 · difference -15.5 pts (Oklahoma State view)
- Total
- model 46.3 · market 70.25 · difference -24.0
Model margin is 15.5 pts more toward Murray State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Murray State 2.9, Oklahoma State 43.4 | Oklahoma State 100%right winner | 18.5 | 12.7 |
| New formula | Murray State 10.9, Oklahoma State 42.3 | Oklahoma State 98%right winner | 27.6 | 5.7 |
Final: Murray State 0, Oklahoma State 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Murray State vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Murray State | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 24.5#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 27.5#106 |
| Yards per play | 5.63 | 6.08#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.50 | 5.64#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.3 | 188.0#65 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.0 | 326.0#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 192.0 | 124.0#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.3 | 200.5#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 2.50#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33 | 0.50#110 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.00#53 |
| Stat | Murray State | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.14#133 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | -0.01#52 |
| Success rate | 39.6% | 40.2%#100 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 35.7%#29 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 11.2%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.3% | 12.2%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1% | 13.0%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9% | 10.7%#28 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.47 | 3.23#120 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.39 | 4.00#82 |
| Average starting field position | opp 22 | own 27#111 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 18 | own 35#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3 | 84.5#3 |
| Stat | Murray State | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.03#109 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.23#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.02#63 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.01#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5% | 41.9%#89 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 38.9%#92 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 17.6%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 32.1%#62 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.3% | 15.9%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.5% | 33.3%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.0% | 24.0%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 23.7% | 40.0%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 29.4% | 66.7%#101 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Murray State schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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