Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Minnesota 28.7, Akron 24.9 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Minnesota wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Akron is 1-1, scoring 30.5 and allowing 24 points per game (+6.5 per game). Minnesota is 1-1, scoring 36 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+13.5 per game).
Expect Akron to find it hard going: Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) outranks Akron's below-average offense (110th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Akron's struggling defense (122nd); that mismatch is where most of Minnesota's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 19 and Minnesota by 26 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Minnesota by about 1.7. The game is on BTN.
Result: Akron 7, Minnesota 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 30.2 points and the total by 5.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Akron / Minnesota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Minnesota -26.5 → Minnesota -22.5 | 48.75 → 48.5 | +1350 / -4100 |
| DraftKings | Minnesota -26.5 → Minnesota -22.5 | 48.5 | +1400 / -3200 |
| Bovada | Minnesota -26.5 → Minnesota -22.5 | 49 → 48.5 | +1300 / -5000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Minnesota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Minnesota -4 | 53.5 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Minnesota -22.5 | 48.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Minnesota -19.5 | 49.7 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Minnesota win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -34 pts
- Margin
- model Minnesota -3.8 · market Minnesota -22.5 · difference -18.7 pts (Minnesota view)
- Total
- model 53.5 · market 48.5 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 18.7 pts more toward Akron than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Akron 24.9, Minnesota 28.7 | Minnesota 60%right winner | 30.2 | 5.5 |
| New formula | Akron 18.8, Minnesota 35.9 | Minnesota 86%right winner | 16.9 | 6.8 |
Final: Akron 7, Minnesota 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Akron vs Minnesota: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Akron | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.5#73 | 36.0#50 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#87 | 22.5#78 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#81 | 5.57#107 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.68#121 | 5.43#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.0#46 | 86.0#136 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.5#87 | 287.0#28 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.5#55 | 157.0#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 264.0#120 | 141.5#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#68 | 0.50#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#117 | 0.50#98 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#135 | 1.00#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#117 | 1.00#43 |
| Stat | Akron | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#78 | +0.14#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#114 | +0.16#124 |
| Success rate | 48.0%#24 | 49.5%#17 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3%#45 | 46.3%#127 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.6%#8 | 11.6%#95 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9%#126 | 12.5%#95 |
| Havoc rate | 10.6%#125 | 12.5%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7%#80 | 12.6%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.55#8 | 3.92#89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.71#65 | 5.63#133 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#100 | own 33#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 19#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.5#48 | 67.0#61 |
| Stat | Akron | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#42 | -0.07#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#86 | +0.25#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.23#8 | +0.16#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#128 | +0.15#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2%#25 | 54.8%#19 |
| Passing success rate | 43.6%#72 | 46.9%#54 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.6%#26 | 25.5%#134 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.0%#19 | 25.0%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.8%#121 | 29.6%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#44 | 50.0%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3%#99 | 39.1%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#32 | 62.5%#78 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20.0%#8 | 80.0%#119 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Akron schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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