Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware 29.1, Coastal Carolina 26.3 at Delaware Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Delaware wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 55.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Coastal Carolina is 1-1, scoring 34.5 and allowing 19 points per game (+15.5 per game). Delaware is 1-1, scoring 34 and allowing 21 points per game (+13 per game).
Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (100th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's below-average defense (107th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Delaware's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense) against Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (112th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 20 and Delaware by 25 about 80% of the time.
Delaware gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware by about 0.7. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Coastal Carolina 14, Delaware 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.2 points and the total by 19.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Coastal Carolina / Delaware) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Delaware -4.75 → Delaware -5 | 58 → 56.5 | +172.5 / -207.5 |
| DraftKings | Delaware -4.5 | 58.5 → 56.5 | +170 / -205 |
| Bovada | Delaware -5 → Delaware -5.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +175 / -210 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware -3 | 55.4 | 57% |
| Market consensus | Delaware -5 | 56.5 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Delaware -4.5 | 56.7 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Delaware -2.8 · market Delaware -5 · difference -2.2 pts (Delaware view)
- Total
- model 55.4 · market 56.5 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Coastal Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Coastal Carolina 26.3, Delaware 29.1 | Delaware 57%right winner | 5.2 | 19.4 |
| New formula | Coastal Carolina 25.6, Delaware 34.4 | Delaware 71%right winner | 0.7 | 24.0 |
Final: Coastal Carolina 14, Delaware 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Coastal Carolina vs Delaware: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.5#56 | 34.0#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#65 | 21.0#71 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#48 | 6.51#61 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.06#60 | 4.47#31 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.5#77 | 137.5#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.5#38 | 302.0#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.0#130 | 93.0#24 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 96.0#5 | 209.0#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#102 | 1.50#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#44 | 0.50#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#48 | 2.50#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50#132 | 3.50#130 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#87 | +0.15#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#76 | -0.01#53 |
| Success rate | 41.5%#94 | 42.6%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#68 | 35.1%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#36 | 15.2%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#48 | 8.7%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#80 | 17.7%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9%#125 | 16.2%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09#80 | 4.56#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.32#35 | 3.50#50 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#39 | own 32#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#65 | own 31#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#75 | 67.5#57 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#68 | +0.15#36 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#80 | +0.16#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#94 | -0.01#64 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#66 | +0.00#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.2%#31 | 47.7%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 38.0%#100 | 38.8%#93 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#91 | 19.6%#101 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#75 | 31.7%#67 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#52 | 20.8%#19 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3%#116 | 33.3%#111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#80 | 28.1%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.2%#38 | 70.7%#42 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1%#67 | 66.3%#94 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · Delaware schedule · all Week 3 projections
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