Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Washington State 43.8, Duquesne 4.9 at Martin Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Washington State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.9 points and 48.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Duquesne is 0-2, scoring 6.5 and allowing 52 points per game (-45.5 per game). Washington State is 0-2, scoring 8.5 and allowing 29 points per game (-20.5 per game).
Duquesne plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Washington State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 16 and Washington State by 61 about 80% of the time.
Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington State by about 36.8. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Duquesne 7, Washington State 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.1 points and the total by 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duquesne / Washington State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington State -38 → Washington State -38.5 | 53.75 → 52 | — / — |
| Bovada | Washington State -38.5 | 54 → 52.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Washington State -37.5 → Washington State -38.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Washington State -39 | 48.7 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Washington State -38.5 | 52.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Washington State -39 | 52.5 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Washington State -38.9 · market Washington State -38.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Washington State view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 52 · difference -3.3
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duquesne 4.9, Washington State 43.8 | Washington State 99%right winner | 2.1 | 6.3 |
| New formula | Duquesne 13.5, Washington State 40.1 | Washington State 95%right winner | 14.3 | 1.4 |
Final: Duquesne 7, Washington State 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duquesne vs Washington State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Duquesne | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 6.5 | 8.5#138 |
| Points allowed per game | 52.0 | 29.0#116 |
| Yards per play | 3.81 | 3.97#138 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.11 | 7.14#129 |
| Rushing yards per game | 114.0 | 116.5#123 |
| Net passing yards per game | 74.5 | 90.0#134 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 313.5 | 217.5#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.0 | 268.0#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.00#85 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 0.00#137 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 3.50#133 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.25#136 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.36 | +0.06#92 |
| Success rate | 33.5% | 29.7%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 55.6% | 47.6%#130 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 5.5%#138 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 15.3%#130 |
| Havoc rate | 6.7% | 9.7%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 19.8%#134 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.08 | 1.67#138 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.53 | 3.40#43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 32 | own 25#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 31 | own 35#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 49.5 | 52.0#134 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13 | -0.20#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.25 | -0.30#133 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.26 | +0.06#90 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.62 | +0.07#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0% | 28.9%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 22.9% | 30.4%#131 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 23.1%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 12.9%#137 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.9% | 36.1%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0% | 13.0%#137 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 59.1% | 50.0%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 16.7% | 50.0%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 39.7% | 50.0%#47 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duquesne schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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