Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Washington 42.8, Eastern Washington 7 at Husky Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Washington wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.7 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Eastern Washington is 1-2, scoring 28 and allowing 33 points per game (-5 per game). Washington is 2-0, scoring 20 and allowing 12 points per game (+8 per game).
Eastern Washington plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Washington's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington by 13 and Washington by 58 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington by about 33.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Eastern Washington 16, Washington 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 14.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Washington / Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington -42.5 → Washington -43 | 57.25 → 58.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Washington -42.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Washington -42.5 → Washington -43.5 | 58 → 59 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Washington -35.5 | 49.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Washington -43 | 58.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Washington -42 | 58.4 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Washington -35.7 · market Washington -43 · difference -7.3 pts (Washington view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 58.75 · difference -9.0
Model margin is 7.3 pts more toward Eastern Washington than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Washington 7.0, Washington 42.8 | Washington 99%right winner | 3.7 | 14.2 |
| New formula | Eastern Washington 9.1, Washington 44.0 | Washington 99%right winner | 3.0 | 10.9 |
Final: Eastern Washington 16, Washington 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Washington vs Washington: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 20.0#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 12.0#29 |
| Yards per play | 5.66 | 5.62#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.47 | 5.14#62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.3 | 130.0#110 |
| Net passing yards per game | 265.0 | 249.5#52 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.3 | 102.5#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.0 | 188.0#61 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.00#18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 2.50#3 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 3.00#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.00#46 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.03#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | -0.08#25 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 41.9%#91 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.7% | 35.5%#27 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3% | 11.9%#89 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.4% | 11.3%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 18.5% | 19.0%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 10.6%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.01#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.38#39 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 34#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 26#46 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7 | 67.5#56 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.07#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.01#97 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.14#23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.03#47 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.0% | 43.1%#82 |
| Passing success rate | 47.7% | 44.2%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1% | 21.9%#115 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.3% | 19.6%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 27.5%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.7% | 35.7%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 29.2%#32 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 44.2%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 66.0%#92 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Washington schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 3 projections
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