Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Old Dominion 26.1, East Carolina 22.8 at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Old Dominion wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Carolina is 0-2, scoring 17 and allowing 37.5 points per game (-20.5 per game). Old Dominion is 1-1, scoring 26 and allowing 27 points per game (-1 per game).
Old Dominion's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) should limit East Carolina's below-average offense (86th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense). Old Dominion's below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense) meets East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Old Dominion puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 19 and Old Dominion by 26 about 80% of the time.
Old Dominion gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Old Dominion by about 1.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17. East Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Carolina / Old Dominion) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Old Dominion -2.75 → Old Dominion -2.5 | 49.5 → 48.75 | +117.5 / -137.5 |
| Bovada | Old Dominion -3 → Old Dominion -2.5 | 49.5 → 49 | +125 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Old Dominion -2.5 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +110 / -130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Old Dominion win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Old Dominion -3 | 48.9 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Old Dominion -2.5 | 48.8 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Old Dominion -2.5 | 49.7 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Old Dominion win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Old Dominion -3.2 · market Old Dominion -2.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Old Dominion view)
- Total
- model 48.9 · market 48.75 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Carolina 22.8, Old Dominion 26.1 | Old Dominion 58%wrong winner | 6.2 | 11.9 |
| New formula | East Carolina 22.1, Old Dominion 29.2 | Old Dominion 67%wrong winner | 10.2 | 14.3 |
Final: East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Carolina vs Old Dominion: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | East Carolina | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0#124 | 26.0#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.5#131 | 27.0#101 |
| Yards per play | 5.43#109 | 4.77#125 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74#98 | 4.41#29 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.5#126 | 138.0#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.0#96 | 105.5#131 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 182.5#111 | 129.5#71 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.0#110 | 190.0#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#123 | 1.50#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#116 | 1.00#70 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#102 | 3.50#12 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#116 | 4.50#137 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#106 | -0.11#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#94 | -0.07#30 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#92 | 38.3%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#113 | 33.1%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#101 | 16.0%#19 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.6%#122 | 11.6%#73 |
| Havoc rate | 10.0%#127 | 19.0%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3%#121 | 23.5%#138 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.86#96 | 4.10#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.73#117 | 3.92#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#123 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#116 | own 36#137 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.0#117 | 51.0#136 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#72 | -0.08#118 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#106 | -0.15#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#53 | -0.18#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#118 | +0.03#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7%#52 | 40.0%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0%#105 | 35.5%#115 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1%#124 | 29.5%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 17.2%#132 | 40.7%#13 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.6%#132 | 32.6%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 9.5%#138 | 40.0%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.7%#117 | 40.0%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9%#129 | 62.5%#80 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#123 | 50.0%#42 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · Old Dominion schedule · all Week 3 projections
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