Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia 31.9, Arkansas 26 at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Georgia wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 57.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgia (No. 2) is 2-0, scoring 66.5 and allowing 11.5 points per game (+55 per game). Arkansas is 1-1, scoring 20.5 and allowing 28.5 points per game (-8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.1 points against an average defense) against Arkansas's below-average defense (84th). Georgia's elite defense (7th) should limit Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 28 and Arkansas by 17 about 80% of the time.
Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Georgia 45, Arkansas 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.1 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia / Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -21 → Georgia -24.5 | 53.25 → 54.75 | -3050 / +1200 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -17.5 → Georgia -24.5 | 52.5 → 54.5 | -2800 / +1300 |
| Bovada | Georgia -24.5 | 54 → 55 | -3300 / +1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -6 | 57.9 | 35% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -24.5 | 54.8 | 7% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -21.5 | 55.4 | 7% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arkansas win probability
- model 35% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +28 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -5.9 · market Georgia -24.5 · difference +18.6 pts (Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 54.75 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 18.6 pts more toward Arkansas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgia 31.9, Arkansas 26.0 | Georgia 65%right winner | 22.1 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Georgia 42.6, Arkansas 17.0 | Georgia 95%right winner | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Final: Georgia 45, Arkansas 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Georgia vs Arkansas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Georgia | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 66.5#1 | 20.5#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.5#21 | 28.5#111 |
| Yards per play | 9.26#3 | 4.48#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.05#3 | 5.85#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.5#23 | 116.5#122 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.5#32 | 237.5#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 90.0#19 | 104.0#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 107.0#8 | 194.5#66 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#1 | 1.50#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#51 | 1.00#49 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#54 | 1.50#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#1 | 3.50#128 |
| Stat | Georgia | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#28 | -0.10#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#42 | +0.09#99 |
| Success rate | 48.3%#23 | 43.9%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.2%#31 | 41.8%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.4%#11 | 8.1%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#50 | 11.4%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 16.2%#38 | 13.9%#75 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#61 | 15.4%#110 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.41#55 | 3.73#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.36#107 | 5.70#134 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#23 | own 28#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#87 | own 34#121 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.0#115 | 79.0#6 |
| Stat | Georgia | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#51 | -0.13#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#37 | -0.07#115 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#33 | +0.25#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#64 | -0.05#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 75.0%#1 | 39.0%#105 |
| Passing success rate | 67.6%#4 | 48.4%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3%#75 | 17.6%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#86 | 38.1%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.7%#33 | 17.4%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 68.8%#4 | 50.0%#33 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7%#97 | 31.6%#45 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.2%#43 | 62.5%#76 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.0%#91 | 88.9%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia schedule · Arkansas schedule · all Week 3 projections
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