Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Temple 29.5, UConn 27.5 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Temple wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 56.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UConn is 2-3, scoring 36 and allowing 26.2 points per game (+9.8 per game). Temple is 2-3, scoring 25.8 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+1 per game).
UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Temple's below-average defense (100th); that mismatch is where most of UConn's projected points come from. Temple's below-average offense (94th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets UConn's below-average defense (106th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Temple puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 21 and Temple by 25 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field UConn would be favoured by 0.1. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: UConn 34, Temple 20. UConn won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UConn / Temple) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Temple -3.75 | 53.75 → 55.5 | +155 / -182.5 |
| Bovada | Temple -4 | 53 → 55.5 | +160 / -185 |
| DraftKings | Temple -3.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | +150 / -180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Temple win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Temple -2 | 56.9 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Temple -4 | 55.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Temple -3.5 | 55.9 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Temple win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Temple -2 · market Temple -3.75 · difference -1.7 pts (Temple view)
- Total
- model 56.9 · market 55.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward UConn than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UConn 27.5, Temple 29.5 | Temple 55%wrong winner | 16.0 | 2.9 |
| New formula | UConn 28.1, Temple 29.3 | Temple 53%wrong winner | 15.2 | 3.4 |
Final: UConn 34, Temple 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UConn vs Temple: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UConn | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#39 | 25.8#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.2#96 | 24.8#78 |
| Yards per play | 6.79#36 | 6.30#60 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51#68 | 5.81#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.2#43 | 219.0#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 245.2#53 | 143.6#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 120.8#31 | 140.6#58 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 287.8#135 | 239.4#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#120 | 0.60#51 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#79 | 0.60#105 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#110 | 0.80#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#115 | 1.80#79 |
| Stat | UConn | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#55 | +0.13#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#80 | +0.14#115 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#83 | 41.8%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0%#87 | 44.2%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8%#30 | 14.2%#41 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#22 | 13.5%#105 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#63 | 9.7%#134 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#39 | 9.0%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.69#30 | 3.72#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64#55 | 4.41#112 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#48 | own 28#110 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#81 | own 31#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.6#68 | 57.6#127 |
| Stat | UConn | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#21 | +0.14#42 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#69 | +0.11#64 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#47 | +0.09#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#94 | +0.21#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#63 | 44.7%#70 |
| Passing success rate | 41.4%#82 | 36.7%#116 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#48 | 15.8%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8%#53 | 34.6%#46 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#96 | 33.3%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.0%#75 | 40.7%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.2%#115 | 50.8%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 79.3%#7 | 61.5%#82 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#93 | 63.2%#87 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UConn schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.