Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana Tech 28.4, Louisiana 24.9 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Louisiana Tech wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 53.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Louisiana is 4-1, scoring 29.2 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+9.8 per game). Louisiana Tech is 2-2, scoring 36 and allowing 29 points per game (+7 per game).
Louisiana's below-average offense (90th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana Tech's below-average defense (86th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana puts up. Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana's below-average defense (83rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 19 and Louisiana Tech by 26 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana Tech by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Louisiana 31, Louisiana Tech 32. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana / Louisiana Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana Tech -2.75 → Louisiana Tech -3 | 49 → 48.25 | +125 / -147.5 |
| Bovada | Louisiana Tech -2.5 → Louisiana Tech -3 | 49.5 → 48 | +120 / -140 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana Tech -3 | 48.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -3.5 | 53.2 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -3 | 48.3 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -3 | 49.5 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana Tech win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -3.5 · market Louisiana Tech -3 · difference +0.5 pts (Louisiana Tech view)
- Total
- model 53.2 · market 48.25 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Louisiana Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana 24.9, Louisiana Tech 28.4 | Louisiana Tech 59%right winner | 2.5 | 9.8 |
| New formula | Louisiana 24.6, Louisiana Tech 28.7 | Louisiana Tech 61%right winner | 3.1 | 9.8 |
Final: Louisiana 31, Louisiana Tech 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Louisiana | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.2#73 | 36.0#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.4#41 | 29.0#112 |
| Yards per play | 5.76#96 | 6.05#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#22 | 5.51#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.8#37 | 162.0#79 |
| Net passing yards per game | 174.2#114 | 210.0#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 102.2#15 | 164.8#88 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.8#31 | 219.8#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#54 | 1.25#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40#24 | 2.00#7 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#114 | 2.50#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#58 | 2.00#91 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#84 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#37 | -0.10#17 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#98 | 38.1%#121 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5%#59 | 37.8%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#103 | 14.9%#29 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#48 | 13.8%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#56 | 17.8%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#24 | 17.0%#131 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#66 | 4.32#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.60#122 | 4.05#82 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#20 | own 34#17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#23 | own 33#123 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.6#69 | 61.5#107 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#51 | +0.14#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#103 | -0.06#116 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#13 | -0.05#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#84 | -0.16#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#89 | 36.6%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 43.2%#72 | 39.6%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#85 | 21.6%#126 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#82 | 29.2%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#68 | 27.8%#54 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#104 | 43.1%#64 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#95 | 42.9%#106 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.2%#61 | 71.4%#26 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.8%#91 | 47.1%#26 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 6 projections
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