Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah State 25.8, Washington State 21.2 at Maverik Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Utah State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Washington State is 1-4, scoring 19 and allowing 25 points per game (-6 per game). Utah State is 1-4, scoring 14 and allowing 25 points per game (-11 per game).
Expect Washington State to find it hard going: Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (111th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.9 points against an average defense). Washington State's below-average defense (85th) should limit Utah State's below-average offense (102nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 18 and Utah State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah State by about 2.5. The game is on CW.
Result: Washington State 16, Utah State 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.6 points and the total by 13.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington State / Utah State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah State -4.75 → Utah State -4 | 43.5 → 44 | +154.5 / -182.5 |
| Bovada | Utah State -4 | 43.5 | +155 / -180 |
| DraftKings | Utah State -5.5 → Utah State -4 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +154 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah State -4.5 | 46.9 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Utah State -4 | 44.0 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Utah State -4 | 45.4 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah State win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Utah State -4.6 · market Utah State -4 · difference +0.6 pts (Utah State view)
- Total
- model 46.9 · market 44 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Washington State 21.2, Utah State 25.8 | Utah State 62%right winner | 3.6 | 13.9 |
| New formula | Washington State 21.1, Utah State 25.3 | Utah State 61%right winner | 3.2 | 13.4 |
Final: Washington State 16, Utah State 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Washington State vs Utah State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Washington State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0#122 | 14.0#136 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#85 | 25.0#81 |
| Yards per play | 4.99#131 | 5.66#104 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#106 | 5.69#83 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.0#105 | 147.0#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 147.2#129 | 212.0#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.0#98 | 158.8#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.4#98 | 243.0#110 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#106 | 2.20#138 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#113 | 0.80#78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#129 | 1.20#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#128 | 3.40#131 |
| Stat | Washington State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11#135 | -0.10#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#71 | +0.00#55 |
| Success rate | 34.8%#134 | 35.4%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#94 | 41.7%#83 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6%#132 | 12.5%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#108 | 9.3%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#97 | 11.1%#125 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#122 | 18.5%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.00#129 | 2.24#138 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58#51 | 3.41#33 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#135 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#126 | own 29#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.6#124 | 63.4#93 |
| Stat | Washington State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#118 | -0.04#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17#130 | -0.15#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#54 | -0.01#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#85 | +0.01#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.2%#126 | 37.0%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 34.5%#128 | 34.0%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.6%#132 | 21.5%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.6%#131 | 32.4%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6%#94 | 30.8%#84 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 26.7%#136 | 39.7%#84 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#97 | 45.2%#118 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#92 | 42.9%#130 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.8%#29 | 43.8%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington State schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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