Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 37.3, UAB 19.4 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Memphis wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.9 points and 56.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
UAB is 3-2, scoring 24 and allowing 23.4 points per game (+0.6 per game). Memphis is 4-1, scoring 38.6 and allowing 22.4 points per game (+16.2 per game).
Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) should limit UAB's struggling offense (121st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.7 points against an average defense) against UAB's struggling defense (120th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAB by 5 and Memphis by 40 about 80% of the time.
Memphis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Memphis by about 15.8. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: UAB 13, Memphis 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 5.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAB / Memphis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -14.25 → Memphis -15.25 | 58 → 55.25 | +475 / -675 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -14 → Memphis -15.5 | 57.5 → 55.5 | +490 / -675 |
| Bovada | Memphis -14.5 → Memphis -15 | 58.5 → 55 | +460 / -675 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Memphis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -18 | 56.6 | 88% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -15.5 | 55.3 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -16 | 55.7 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Memphis win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -17.9 · market Memphis -15.25 · difference +2.6 pts (Memphis view)
- Total
- model 56.6 · market 55.25 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Memphis than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAB 19.4, Memphis 37.3 | Memphis 88%right winner | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| New formula | UAB 19.1, Memphis 37.1 | Memphis 88%right winner | 7.0 | 5.2 |
Final: UAB 13, Memphis 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAB vs Memphis: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UAB | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0#99 | 38.6#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.4#71 | 22.4#60 |
| Yards per play | 5.55#111 | 8.13#2 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#47 | 6.66#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.6#45 | 261.0#9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 162.2#120 | 284.0#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.2#123 | 195.4#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 112.0#3 | 213.4#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#70 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#66 | 1.20#39 |
| Sacks per game | 2.40#49 | 2.40#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#118 | 1.40#53 |
| Stat | UAB | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.22#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#63 | +0.08#96 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#80 | 48.4%#23 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#97 | 39.4%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6%#131 | 16.8%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#37 | 14.4%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#81 | 14.2%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#97 | 11.9%#43 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.40#118 | 4.72#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.88#75 | 3.40#31 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#31 | own 24#138 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#76 | own 27#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#81 | 67.0#56 |
| Stat | UAB | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#18 | +0.15#35 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#111 | +0.32#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#80 | +0.22#132 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#38 | -0.04#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.2%#39 | 49.1%#30 |
| Passing success rate | 37.5%#113 | 52.6%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#49 | 14.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.5%#55 | 34.2%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#42 | 26.7%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0%#33 | 50.0%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3%#63 | 35.5%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.6%#133 | 58.0%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.5%#95 | 61.8%#86 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAB schedule · Memphis schedule · all Week 6 projections
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