Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Michigan 29.3, Akron 25 at InfoCision Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Eastern Michigan wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 54.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Eastern Michigan is 3-3, scoring 22.2 and allowing 25 points per game (-2.8 per game). Akron is 1-4, scoring 19 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-14.6 per game).
Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (107th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Akron's struggling defense (132nd); that mismatch is where most of Eastern Michigan's projected points come from. Expect Akron to find it hard going: Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (112th) outranks Akron's struggling offense (128th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Michigan by 27 and Akron by 18 about 80% of the time.
Akron gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Eastern Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Michigan / Akron) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Michigan -6.5 → Eastern Michigan -5 | 51.25 | -224 / +185 |
| Bovada | Eastern Michigan -6 → Eastern Michigan -5.5 | 51 | -230 / +190 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Michigan -7 → Eastern Michigan -4.5 | 51.5 | -218 / +180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Akron win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Michigan -4 | 54.3 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Michigan -5 | 51.3 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Michigan -5 | 52.1 | 37% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Akron win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Michigan -4.2 · market Eastern Michigan -5 · difference +0.8 pts (Akron view)
- Total
- model 54.3 · market 51.25 · difference +3.0
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Akron than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Michigan 29.3, Akron 25.0 | Eastern Michigan 61%right winner | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| New formula | Eastern Michigan 29.4, Akron 25.0 | Eastern Michigan 61%right winner | 2.4 | 6.4 |
Final: Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Michigan vs Akron: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.2#107 | 19.0#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#82 | 33.6#128 |
| Yards per play | 5.04#130 | 5.25#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97#103 | 7.20#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 121.2#126 | 159.0#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 200.8#96 | 178.8#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.3#53 | 193.6#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.0#102 | 238.4#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#72 | 1.20#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#62 | 0.40#127 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#102 | 0.20#138 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#47 | 2.80#125 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#104 | -0.08#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#84 | +0.17#121 |
| Success rate | 41.1%#97 | 40.6%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0%#88 | 44.6%#109 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#120 | 13.7%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#84 | 15.6%#128 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#77 | 9.8%#133 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#76 | 16.9%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#50 | 3.95#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64#56 | 4.14#92 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#127 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#93 | own 31#105 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8#92 | 64.4#86 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#76 | +0.10#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#110 | -0.22#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#63 | +0.10#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#93 | +0.23#116 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8%#79 | 47.7%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8%#110 | 34.5%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8%#96 | 14.0%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2%#88 | 25.4%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#85 | 33.9%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.1%#49 | 42.2%#70 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3%#102 | 41.0%#96 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.5%#69 | 66.0%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.6%#121 | 52.8%#50 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Michigan schedule · Akron schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.