Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 31.3, Nebraska 22.9 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Indiana wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 54.2 combined points.
Indiana (No. 7) is 5-0, scoring 44.2 and allowing 10.8 points per game (+33.4 per game). Nebraska is 5-0, scoring 43.6 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+29.4 per game).
Indiana's elite offense (7th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Nebraska's strong defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Indiana's projected points come from. Nebraska's strong offense (18th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) meets Indiana's elite defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nebraska puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 31 and Nebraska by 14 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Indiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.4 points and the total by 17.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -9 | 51 → 48.25 | -340 / +270 |
| Bovada | Indiana -8.5 | 51.5 → 48 | -340 / +270 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -9.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | -340 / +270 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -8.5 | 54.2 | 29% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -9 | 48.3 | 26% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -9 | 49.5 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 29% · market (no-vig) 26% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -8.4 · market Indiana -9 · difference +0.6 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 54.2 · market 48.25 · difference +6.0
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Nebraska than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana 31.3, Nebraska 22.9 | Indiana 71%right winner | 5.4 | 17.2 |
| New formula | Indiana 31.4, Nebraska 23.3 | Indiana 70%right winner | 5.0 | 17.7 |
Final: Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana vs Nebraska: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Indiana | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.2#8 | 43.6#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 10.8#5 | 14.2#15 |
| Yards per play | 7.92#3 | 6.81#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.64#17 | 5.16#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 262.2#8 | 235.6#18 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.0#68 | 239.8#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 85.8#7 | 124.4#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 175.0#35 | 178.8#38 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#1 | 0.40#23 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#58 | 1.60#14 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#16 | 3.00#17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#52 | 1.00#25 |
| Stat | Indiana | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#16 | +0.21#21 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#14 | -0.12#8 |
| Success rate | 48.0%#26 | 47.6%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#16 | 34.5%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.0%#6 | 14.9%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#21 | 11.0%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#89 | 14.9%#51 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.3%#32 | 10.8%#23 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.57#43 | 4.87#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.39#30 | 3.51#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#24 | own 31#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#13 | own 28#68 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#104 | 69.8#32 |
| Stat | Indiana | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#37 | +0.21#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#12 | +0.22#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#11 | +0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#31 | -0.22#7 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9%#42 | 50.0%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 57.9%#3 | 47.9%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8%#27 | 14.7%#42 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.7%#33 | 38.4%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#66 | 19.8%#2 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.9%#16 | 51.6%#18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.4%#16 | 26.2%#5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#25 | 77.1%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.6%#88 | 56.7%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 6 projections
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