Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Air Force 27.7, Northern Illinois 22.9 at Huskie Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Air Force wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Air Force is 3-1, scoring 29 and allowing 20 points per game (+9 per game). Northern Illinois is 0-4, scoring 13.8 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-22.5 per game).
Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Northern Illinois's below-average defense (107th); that mismatch is where most of Air Force's projected points come from. Expect Northern Illinois to find it hard going: Air Force's below-average defense (88th) outranks Northern Illinois's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 27 and Northern Illinois by 18 about 80% of the time.
Northern Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Air Force is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.2 points and the total by 15.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Air Force / Northern Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -9.5 → Air Force -7 | 47 → 48.5 | -389 / +295 |
| Bovada | Air Force -11.5 → Air Force -7 | 47.5 → 48.5 | -480 / +350 |
| DraftKings | Air Force -7.5 → Air Force -7 | 46.5 → 48.5 | -298 / +240 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Air Force -5 | 50.5 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -7 | 48.5 | 25% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -6.5 | 49.5 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Illinois win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 25% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Air Force -4.8 · market Air Force -7 · difference +2.2 pts (Northern Illinois view)
- Total
- model 50.5 · market 48.5 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Northern Illinois than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Air Force 27.7, Northern Illinois 22.9 | Air Force 62%right winner | 16.2 | 15.5 |
| New formula | Air Force 28.4, Northern Illinois 22.6 | Air Force 65%right winner | 15.2 | 15.9 |
Final: Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Air Force vs Northern Illinois: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#75 | 13.8#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0#49 | 36.3#131 |
| Yards per play | 5.36#116 | 4.86#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91#100 | 6.35#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 300.8#3 | 102.3#136 |
| Net passing yards per game | 98.8#134 | 211.0#83 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.8#52 | 169.8#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 181.0#42 | 246.5#113 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#81 | 0.75#60 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#96 | 1.50#20 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#103 | 1.75#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#8 | 4.25#137 |
| Stat | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#57 | -0.02#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#45 | +0.14#116 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#60 | 38.9%#118 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.1%#30 | 46.1%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#121 | 10.6%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#80 | 14.3%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#103 | 12.9%#96 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1%#4 | 16.3%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.74#27 | 2.29#137 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04#81 | 4.29#106 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#59 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#84 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.5#8 | 64.5#83 |
| Stat | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#52 | +0.04#89 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#38 | -0.06#117 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#55 | +0.05#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#43 | +0.23#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#62 | 40.2%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 39.6%#93 | 38.1%#106 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.3%#6 | 21.6%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6%#112 | 20.9%#134 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.1%#12 | 41.8%#134 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.3%#13 | 33.3%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.3%#22 | 59.3%#138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.8%#16 | 45.5%#127 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.1%#43 | 68.8%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Air Force schedule · Northern Illinois schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.