Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston 30.7, Kansas State 29.4 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Houston wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 60 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Houston (No. 22) is 4-1, scoring 41 and allowing 19.8 points per game (+21.2 per game). Kansas State is 3-1, scoring 40.5 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+25.2 per game).
Houston's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd); that mismatch is where most of Houston's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas State's strong offense (24th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) against Houston's strong defense (39th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 24 and Kansas State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Houston 35, Kansas State 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.7 points and the total by 9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston / Kansas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -2.5 | 55.75 → 55 | +120 / -141 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -2.5 | 56 → 54.5 | +120 / -140 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -2.5 | 55.5 | +120 / -142 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston -1.5 | 60.0 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -2.5 | 55.0 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -2 | 55.7 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas State win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Houston -1.3 · market Kansas State -2.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Kansas State view)
- Total
- model 60.0 · market 55 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston 30.7, Kansas State 29.4 | Houston 53%right winner | 17.7 | 9.0 |
| New formula | Houston 30.3, Kansas State 30.6 | Kansas State 51%wrong winner | 19.3 | 9.9 |
Final: Houston 35, Kansas State 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston vs Kansas State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.0#17 | 40.5#19 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.8#44 | 15.3#22 |
| Yards per play | 6.98#21 | 6.93#24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63#76 | 4.68#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 229.6#21 | 242.0#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.2#44 | 257.0#43 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 85.6#6 | 160.5#81 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.8#117 | 88.8#1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#42 | 0.75#58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.20#33 | 0.25#131 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#62 | 3.00#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#21 | 0.00#1 |
| Stat | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#13 | +0.17#35 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#92 | +0.03#69 |
| Success rate | 53.5%#2 | 45.4%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#60 | 38.7%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#86 | 12.5%#75 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#56 | 14.2%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 19.5%#3 | 15.5%#34 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.9%#12 | 11.3%#31 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.68#32 | 4.74#26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.11#132 | 4.46#115 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#3 | own 30#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#6 | own 26#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.6#34 | 72.0#14 |
| Stat | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#29 | +0.17#24 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#19 | +0.18#41 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#50 | +0.03#66 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#98 | +0.04#69 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.1%#11 | 52.9%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 55.2%#9 | 44.8%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.0%#1 | 15.8%#55 |
| Passing-down success rate | 50.0%#2 | 38.3%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3%#97 | 32.8%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 65.6%#1 | 65.0%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.4%#45 | 33.3%#31 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.0%#43 | 69.6%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 90.0%#136 | 69.9%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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