Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected App State 28.1, Old Dominion 23.7 at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: App State wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 51.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Old Dominion is 1-4, scoring 19.8 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-12.6 per game). App State is 3-1, scoring 34.8 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+12.5 per game).
Old Dominion's struggling offense (118th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense) meets App State's below-average defense (104th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Old Dominion puts up. App State's below-average offense (91st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24 points against an average defense) meets Old Dominion's below-average defense (101st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points App State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 18 and App State by 27 about 80% of the time.
App State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour App State by about 2.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Old Dominion 10, App State 3. Old Dominion won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 11.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Old Dominion / App State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | App State -9.75 → App State -9 | 50.25 → 45.5 | +290 / -375 |
| Bovada | App State -10 → App State -9.5 | 51 → 45.5 | +295 / -390 |
| DraftKings | App State -9.5 → App State -8.5 | 49.5 → 45.5 | +285 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | App State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | App State -4.5 | 51.8 | 61% |
| Market consensus | App State -9 | 45.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | App State -8.5 | 47.0 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- App State win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model App State -4.4 · market App State -9 · difference -4.6 pts (App State view)
- Total
- model 51.8 · market 45.5 · difference +6.3
Model margin is 4.6 pts more toward Old Dominion than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Old Dominion 23.7, App State 28.1 | App State 61%wrong winner | 11.4 | 38.8 |
| New formula | Old Dominion 23.3, App State 29.0 | App State 64%wrong winner | 12.6 | 39.3 |
Final: Old Dominion 10, App State 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Old Dominion vs App State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.8#116 | 34.8#45 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4#124 | 22.3#59 |
| Yards per play | 4.29#138 | 6.57#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00#30 | 5.14#39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.0#128 | 150.5#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 130.6#133 | 307.5#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.0#71 | 130.3#44 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.0#64 | 214.0#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#99 | 0.50#39 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#107 | 1.75#10 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#67 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00#138 | 1.00#29 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18#138 | +0.11#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#32 | -0.01#52 |
| Success rate | 29.4%#138 | 41.2%#95 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#27 | 41.8%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#109 | 14.2%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#62 | 11.7%#72 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#73 | 14.8%#55 |
| Havoc allowed | 22.0%#138 | 11.9%#44 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22#123 | 4.11#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15#94 | 3.72#64 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#95 | own 33#28 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#133 | own 26#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.4#125 | 69.8#33 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#130 | -0.07#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27#136 | +0.27#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#12 | +0.08#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#75 | -0.08#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.9%#129 | 33.1%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 24.8%#137 | 49.3%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 29.9%#138 | 20.4%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#97 | 36.6%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3%#79 | 24.9%#27 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8%#120 | 40.4%#81 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#81 | 36.4%#53 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.8%#129 | 73.7%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.0%#31 | 61.3%#84 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Old Dominion schedule · App State schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.