Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Marshall 30.8, Coastal Carolina 27 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Marshall wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Coastal Carolina is 1-4, scoring 24.8 and allowing 25 points per game (-0.2 per game). Marshall is 3-2, scoring 22.2 and allowing 35 points per game (-12.8 per game).
Coastal Carolina's struggling offense (119th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense) meets Marshall's struggling defense (128th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up. Marshall's below-average offense (89th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (113th); that mismatch is where most of Marshall's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 19 and Marshall by 26 about 80% of the time.
Marshall gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Marshall by about 1.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21. Coastal Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Coastal Carolina / Marshall) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marshall -3 → Marshall -4.5 | 58.5 → 57.75 | +147 / -174 |
| Bovada | Marshall -3 → Marshall -4.5 | 58.5 → 58 | +130 / -150 |
| DraftKings | Marshall -3 → Marshall -4.5 | 58.5 → 57.5 | +164 / -198 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Marshall win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Marshall -4 | 57.7 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Marshall -4.5 | 57.8 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Marshall -4.5 | 57.9 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Marshall win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Marshall -3.8 · market Marshall -4.5 · difference -0.7 pts (Marshall view)
- Total
- model 57.7 · market 57.75 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Coastal Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Coastal Carolina 27.0, Marshall 30.8 | Marshall 60%wrong winner | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Coastal Carolina 26.7, Marshall 30.5 | Marshall 60%wrong winner | 9.7 | 9.2 |
Final: Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Coastal Carolina vs Marshall: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8#95 | 22.2#108 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#84 | 35.0#130 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#84 | 5.99#81 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.30#112 | 7.50#136 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.4#89 | 148.8#100 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.2#70 | 251.4#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.0#122 | 191.4#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 188.6#51 | 305.2#138 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#105 | 1.00#90 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#92 | 0.60#112 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#76 | 0.80#132 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.60#134 | 1.60#73 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.11#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#109 | +0.26#136 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#108 | 43.4%#68 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#113 | 48.1%#131 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#51 | 12.0%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#90 | 14.8%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#91 | 8.4%#138 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#116 | 13.0%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66#106 | 3.59#112 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#59 | 4.34#109 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#97 | own 28#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#82 | own 29#69 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#75 | 66.8#60 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#53 | +0.10#69 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#106 | +0.12#62 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#94 | +0.05#79 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#105 | +0.42#137 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6%#64 | 43.9%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6%#125 | 42.9%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.1%#19 | 17.1%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#73 | 28.0%#98 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.8%#20 | 33.3%#108 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1%#98 | 36.5%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7%#78 | 46.3%#122 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.9%#66 | 52.9%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.0%#57 | 61.1%#83 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · Marshall schedule · all Week 6 projections
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